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Tropical Storm Leslie Public Advisory Number 18
2018-09-30 22:37:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Sep 30 2018 215 WTNT33 KNHC 302037 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 500 PM AST Sun Sep 30 2018 ...LESLIE CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH... ...EXPECTED TO MEANDER OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FOR MANY DAYS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.5N 53.2W ABOUT 675 MI...1090 KM E OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 240 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was located near latitude 33.5 North, longitude 53.2 West. Leslie is moving toward the west-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow southwestward or southward motion is forecast during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 72 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Leslie will affect Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and most of the Greater and Lesser Antilles during the next day or two. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 18
2018-09-30 22:37:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 30 2018 214 WTNT23 KNHC 302037 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 2100 UTC SUN SEP 30 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.5N 53.2W AT 30/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......180NE 130SE 100SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 240SE 240SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.5N 53.2W AT 30/2100Z AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 53.0W FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 33.3N 53.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 32.9N 54.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 110SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 32.1N 55.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 120SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 31.3N 55.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 130SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 31.0N 54.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 130SW 160NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 33.5N 53.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 36.5N 52.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.5N 53.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Leslie Graphics
2018-09-30 16:35:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 30 Sep 2018 14:35:47 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 30 Sep 2018 15:22:06 GMT
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Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 17
2018-09-30 16:34:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 30 2018 613 WTNT43 KNHC 301433 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 30 2018 Deep convection has increased a little during the past several hours in a band to the southeast of the center, but the shower activity remains quite limited elsewhere in the circulation. The latest satellite intensity estimates and a recent ASCAT pass still support an initial intensity of 45 kt. Leslie is expected to be moving into a lower wind shear environment and over warmer SSTs during the next few days. These conditions should support some gradual strengthening during that time period. After that time, however, Leslie is expected to move over cooler waters, partly induced by its own upwelling, as it heads northeastward back over its previous track. Accordingly, slight weakening is shown toward the end of the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and generally follows the consensus models, IVCN and HCCA. Leslie is drifting to the southwest, with the latest initial motion estimate being 230/3 kt. Leslie is caught in very weak steering currents, and a continued slow southwest to south motion is expected during the next few days. Thereafter, the models show a weak trough developing to the southwest of Leslie and that should cause the system to move northeastward at a slightly faster pace. The models have trended a little to the east this cycle, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted in that direction. The bottom line is that Leslie is forecast to meander over the central Atlantic through the forecast period. Large swells generated by Leslie when it was a strong extratropical low will continue to affect Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and most of the Greater and Lesser Antilles for another day or two. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Although the swells will diminish some by mid-week, they will likely remain hazardous for the same locations through the forecast period due to Leslie's slow motion. The initial 34-kt wind radii were adjusted based on a 1257 UTC ASCAT pass. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 33.6N 52.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 33.2N 53.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 32.9N 53.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 32.3N 54.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 31.6N 54.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 30.8N 54.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 04/1200Z 33.0N 52.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 05/1200Z 36.0N 51.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Tropical Storm Leslie (AT3/AL132018)
2018-09-30 16:33:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LESLIE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN WHILE IT MEANDERS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 AM AST Sun Sep 30 the center of Leslie was located near 33.6, -52.6 with movement SW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 991 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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