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Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 14
2018-09-29 22:33:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 29 2018 106 WTNT43 KNHC 292033 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 500 PM AST Sat Sep 29 2018 Leslie has continued to take on more tropical characteristics over the past few hours. Anti-cyclonic outflow is now present to the northeast and southeast of Leslie and its primary convective band. Late-arriving AMSU data from 1316 UTC also indicated that Leslie has developed a deep-layer warm core structure. Based on these factors, Leslie has been designated as a tropical storm. The initial intensity is set at 45 kt, based on a blend of recent satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and the UW-CIMSS SATCON. Leslie continues to move slowly southwestward with an initial motion of 225/5 kt. The guidance is in very good agreement that this general motion will continue for another 24 h or so, before the cyclone becomes nearly stationary by early next week. An approaching mid-latitude trough is still expected to eventually cause Leslie to turn toward the north or northeast, perhaps over its own track, in 4 or 5 days. Only minor adjustments were made to the NHC track forecast, which remains close to the various track consensus aids. The NHC intensity forecast has not been changed in any significant way and remains near the intensity consensus, but slightly favors the regional hurricane models. Leslie is currently located over fairly cool SSTs, and its slow motion could cause further ocean cooling. This could particularly be an issue in a few days when the tropical storm is expected to become nearly stationary. The ocean-coupled regional models (HWRF, HMON, COAMPS-TC) continue to indicate that Leslie will struggle to intensify much over the next few days, despite a fairly favorable upper-level environment. On the other hand, some of the uncoupled global models and the SHIPS and LGEM models suggest that more intensification will occur and that Leslie could become a hurricane in a few days. Highlighting the potential importance of SSTs in this case, the SHIPS and LGEM models began using daily SST fields at 18Z, which show nearly 2 deg C cooler SSTs along the track of Leslie, and those models now show much less intensification than they did before. Large swells generated by Leslie when it was a strong extratropical low will affect Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and most of the Greater and Lesser Antilles through the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 34.1N 51.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 33.6N 52.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 33.1N 53.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 32.8N 53.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 01/1800Z 32.5N 53.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 02/1800Z 31.5N 54.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 03/1800Z 31.5N 54.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 04/1800Z 34.0N 54.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Leslie Graphics
2018-09-29 22:33:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 29 Sep 2018 20:33:48 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 29 Sep 2018 21:22:05 GMT
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Tropical Storm Leslie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2018-09-29 22:32:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 29 2018 003 FONT13 KNHC 292032 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 2100 UTC SAT SEP 29 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Summary for Tropical Storm Leslie (AT3/AL132018)
2018-09-29 22:32:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LESLIE BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 PM AST Sat Sep 29 the center of Leslie was located near 34.1, -51.3 with movement SW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 991 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Leslie Public Advisory Number 14
2018-09-29 22:32:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 29 2018 956 WTNT33 KNHC 292032 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 500 PM AST Sat Sep 29 2018 ...LESLIE BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.1N 51.3W ABOUT 790 MI...1270 KM ENE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 1380 MI...2220 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 225 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was located near latitude 34.1 North, longitude 51.3 West. Leslie is moving toward the southwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Sunday. A slower forward motion is anticipated by Sunday night, and Leslie is forecast to move very little on Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is possible over the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Leslie will affect Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and most of the Greater and Lesser Antilles through the weekend. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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