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Tropical Storm Leslie Public Advisory Number 17

2018-09-30 16:33:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 30 2018 017 WTNT33 KNHC 301433 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 30 2018 ...LESLIE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN WHILE IT MEANDERS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.6N 52.6W ABOUT 710 MI...1145 KM E OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was located near latitude 33.6 North, longitude 52.6 West. Leslie is moving toward the southwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow southwestward or southward motion is forecast during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 72 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Leslie will affect Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and most of the Greater and Lesser Antilles during the next couple of days. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Tropical Storm Leslie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17

2018-09-30 16:33:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 30 2018 988 FONT13 KNHC 301433 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 1500 UTC SUN SEP 30 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 17

2018-09-30 16:32:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 30 2018 106 WTNT23 KNHC 301432 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 1500 UTC SUN SEP 30 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 52.6W AT 30/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 230 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......180NE 130SE 100SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 240SE 300SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 52.6W AT 30/1500Z AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 52.4W FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 33.2N 53.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 32.9N 53.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 90SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 32.3N 54.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 31.6N 54.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 150SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 30.8N 54.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 150SE 150SW 200NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 33.0N 52.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 36.0N 51.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.6N 52.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 16

2018-09-30 10:55:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 30 2018 408 WTNT43 KNHC 300855 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 500 AM AST Sun Sep 30 2018 Convection associated with the tropical storm has become more fragmented over the past 12 hours or so, and now consists of several broken bands primarily over the southeastern portion of the circulation. Satellite intensity estimates have not changed much since the previous advisory, and the initial intensity is held at 45 kt, which is in agreement with earlier ASCAT data and a recent UW/CIMSS SATCON estimate of 42 kt. The recent warming of the clouds tops may be associated with cooler waters caused by upwelling beneath the large, slow-moving tropical storm. Leslie, however is forecast to move southwestward toward somewhat warmer waters and a more favorable upper-level environment during the next 2 to 3 days. This conditions should allow for gradual strengthening, and the NHC forecast follows the intensity guidance by bringing Leslie to hurricane strength in about 72 hours. Later in the period, Leslie is likely to move back over some of the cooler upwelled waters along its previous track, which could result in gradual weakening. Recent satellite fixes show that Leslie is moving west- southwestward or 240 degrees at 4 kt. The tropical storm is caught between a pair of mid-level ridges and a slow southwestward to south-southwestward motion is expected over the next 2 to 3 days. Around mid-week, a shortwave trough moving off the coast of the northeastern United States is expected to help lift Leslie slowly northward at days 4 and 5, but the models have trended toward a somewhat slower solution. Despite the storm's expected slow motion, the spread in the track guidance becomes fairly large by days 4 and 5, and it appears that Leslie is likely to meander over the Central Atlantic for quite some time. Large swells generated by Leslie when it was a strong extratropical low will affect Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and most of the Greater and Lesser Antilles through at least the early part of this week. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 33.8N 52.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 33.4N 53.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 32.9N 53.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 01/1800Z 32.5N 54.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 02/0600Z 31.9N 54.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 03/0600Z 30.7N 54.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 04/0600Z 32.4N 54.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 05/0600Z 35.5N 53.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown

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