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Tropical Storm FRED Forecast Discussion Number 3

2015-08-30 16:50:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST SUN AUG 30 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 301450 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 1100 AM AST SUN AUG 30 2015 Visible satellite imagery indicates that convection associated with the tropical cyclone continues to organize. A curved band of convection now wraps almost completely around the center and recent images show that a small CDO feature has developed. An earlier WindSat microwave overpass also revealed a well-defined inner core. Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and UW/CIMSS are around 3.0, and based on these the initial intensity is raised to 45 kt. The environment ahead of Fred appears conducive for strengthening during the next 24 to 36 hours. During that time, there will be sufficient mid-level moisture, the shear is expected to remain low, and the cyclone will be traversing sea surface temperatures of 27 to 28C. Therefore, steady strengthening is anticipated and the SHIPS and LGEM models bring Fred to hurricane status within 24 hours. Strengthening is also supported by the GFS and ECMWF models, which both show the cyclone deepening while it moves through the Cape Verde Islands. After 36 hours, lower sea surface temperatures, increasing southwesterly shear, and a more stable environment should cause weakening. Fred is moving northwestward at about 11 kt. The tropical storm is forecast to move northwestward toward a break in the subtropical ridge to the north of the Cape Verde Islands. In a couple of days, the ridge is forecast to build westward, which should cause Fred to turn west-northwestward. As Fred weakens and become a more shallow cyclone late in the period, a westward to west-northwestward motion is expected. The NHC track is near the consensus of the ECMWF and GFS models through 72 hours. Later in the period, the NHC forecast shows a weaker system moving more westward, and this track is along the southern edge of the guidance in best agreement with the ECMWF. Based on this track and intensity forecast, the Meteorological Service of the Cape Verde Islands has issued a Hurricane Warning for those islands. Please note that the track/cone graphic, an automatically generated product, does not have the capability of displaying warnings for the Cape Verde Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 13.4N 19.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 31/0000Z 14.3N 21.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 31/1200Z 15.7N 23.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 17.2N 25.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 01/1200Z 18.3N 27.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 02/1200Z 19.5N 31.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 03/1200Z 20.5N 35.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 04/1200Z 21.0N 39.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Storm FRED Graphics

2015-08-30 13:50:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 30 Aug 2015 11:50:01 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 30 Aug 2015 09:06:48 GMT

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Summary for Tropical Storm FRED (AT1/AL062015)

2015-08-30 13:49:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...FRED EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN... As of 8:00 AM AST Sun Aug 30 the center of FRED was located near 12.9, -19.3 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Tropical Storm FRED Public Advisory Number 2A

2015-08-30 13:49:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 800 AM AST SUN AUG 30 2015 000 WTNT31 KNHC 301149 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FRED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 800 AM AST SUN AUG 30 2015 ...FRED EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.9N 19.3W ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM ESE OF PRAIA IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cape Verde Islands A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cape Verde Islands A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 to 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located near latitude 12.9 North, longitude 19.3 West. Fred is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Tropical Storm Fred is expected to move through the Cape Verde Islands by late Monday and into Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Fred could be near hurricane strength when it moves through the Cape Verde Islands. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by early Monday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are also possible within the watch area on Monday. RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches over the Cape Verde Islands, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches on Monday. These rains could produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown

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