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Tropical Storm FRED Forecast Discussion Number 2
2015-08-30 10:47:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST SUN AUG 30 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 300847 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 500 AM AST SUN AUG 30 2015 The convective cloud pattern of the tropical cyclone has continued to improve this early morning with the development of a small CDO feature and a tightly curved band in the western and southern quadrants. A 0542 UTC SSMI/S microwave satellite image further indicated that the convective band wraps almost completely around a primitive mid-level eye feature. The initial intensity is raised to 35 kt based on a Dvorak classification of T2.5/35 kt from TAFB, and this intensity could be conservative based on the impressive SSMI/S satellite signature. This makes Fred only the fourth Atlantic tropical storm to form east of 19W longitude in NHC's database. The initial motion remains 305/10 kt. There is no change to the previous forecast track reasoning. Fred is expected to move northwestward toward a weakness just northwest of the Cape Verde Islands within a deep-layer subtropical ridge. The mid-tropospheric trough that is responsible for the weakness is forecast by the global and regional models to shift eastward over the next 24-36 hours, which should allow the ridge to build back in, forcing Fred on a west-northwestward to westward track after 48-72 hours. The latest NHC model guidance is tightly packed about the previous forecast track, so the new track forecast is essentially just an update of the previous advisory, and lies close to the GFEX and TVCA consensus model solutions. Fred is expected to remain in favorable environmental and oceanic conditions for the next 36 hours, characterized by vertical wind shear less than 10 kt, mid-level humidity values greater than 70 percent, and sea-surface temperatures of 27.5-28 deg C. The main inhibiting factor is decreasing instability ahead of the cyclone after 24 hours. However, there should still be enough available instability to support deep convection that will allow at least steady strengthening through 36 hours to occur, and Fred could still reach hurricane status before or while it moves through the Cape Verde Islands in 36 hours or so. After 48 hours, southwesterly vertical wind shear is expected to begin affecting the cyclone while Fred is moving over sub-27C SSTs. These less favorable conditions should combine to induce a gradual weakening trend. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and the IVCN intensity consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 12.4N 18.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 13.4N 20.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 31/0600Z 14.6N 22.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 31/1800Z 16.0N 23.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 01/0600Z 17.0N 25.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 02/0600Z 18.5N 29.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 03/0600Z 19.2N 34.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 04/0600Z 19.8N 38.8W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm FRED Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2015-08-30 10:46:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 30 2015 000 FONT11 KNHC 300846 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 0900 UTC SUN AUG 30 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRED WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 18.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Summary for Tropical Storm FRED (AT1/AL062015)
2015-08-30 10:46:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SIXTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2015 SEASON DEVELOPS OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 AM AST Sun Aug 30 the center of FRED was located near 12.4, -18.9 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm FRED Forecast Advisory Number 2
2015-08-30 10:45:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 30 2015 000 WTNT21 KNHC 300845 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 0900 UTC SUN AUG 30 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAPE VERDE ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAPE VERDE ISLANDS A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 18.9W AT 30/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 18.9W AT 30/0900Z AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 18.4W FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 13.4N 20.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 14.6N 22.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 16.0N 23.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 17.0N 25.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 18.5N 29.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 19.2N 34.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 19.8N 38.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N 18.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hyundai Motor America Pays Tribute To Veteran Civil Rights Attorney Fred Gray
2015-08-05 07:27:55| Automakers - Topix.net
Hyundai Motor America joined forces with the National Bar Association Board of Governors and the law firm of Ivie, McNeil and Wyatt to honor legendary civil rights attorney Fred Gray at a special reception on Saturday, July 18, 2015. Held at the law offices of Ivie, McNeil and Wyatt, Hyundai executives, National Bar Association Board members, and high profile politicos including Los Angeles County Supervisor Mark Ridley-Thomas and Los Angeles City Council President Herb Wesson, gathered to celebrate Gray, one of the nation's most prominent civil rights leaders.
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