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Tropical Storm Kate Forecast Discussion Number 11
2021-08-30 22:36:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Aug 30 2021 988 WTNT45 KNHC 302035 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Kate Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 500 PM AST Mon Aug 30 2021 The low-level center of Kate is exposed in visible satellite imagery this afternoon. Its deep convection collapsed late this morning, and the sheared tropical cyclone is now only producing a small area of convection over 60 n mi east of its center. A partial 1321 UTC ASCAT-B pass still showed numerous 30-kt wind vectors in the eastern semicircle, even with little to no active convection. The initial intensity is conservatively lowered to 35 kt for this advisory. The subtropical jet stream across the central Atlantic will continue to impart strong west-northwesterly vertical wind shear on Kate during the next day or so. If the struggling tropical cyclone can survive these hostile conditions, some modest strengthening could occur later this week over warm SSTs of 28 deg C or so. However, the lack of mid-level moisture in the surrounding environment may limit convective development even under these more favorable conditions, and there is no guarantee that Kate will survive that long. In fact, simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF suggest that Kate may continue to only produce sporadic bursts of convection over the next couple of days, which jeopardizes its chances of surviving through the week. The official NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted downward based on the latest guidance trends and the uncertainties discussed above. Minor fluctuations in intensity could occur over the next 24-36 h as convective pulsing causes the cyclone's intensity to hover around tropical-storm-force strength. Kate is moving a little faster toward the north, or 355/9 kt, within a weakness in the subtropical ridge. A northward motion is expected to continue through early Tuesday. The subtropical ridge is expected to become reestablished over the central Atlantic Tuesday night into Wednesday, which should turn Kate toward the northwest through midweek. Thereafter, Kate is forecast to accelerate northward or north-northeastward ahead of an approaching deep-layer trough that will move across the western Atlantic late this week. Assuming Kate is still around by day 5, the cyclone is forecast to become absorbed by a larger extratropical low near Atlantic Canada. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 22.7N 50.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 31/0600Z 23.7N 50.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 31/1800Z 24.7N 50.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 25.8N 51.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 01/1800Z 27.0N 52.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 02/0600Z 28.4N 53.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 02/1800Z 30.1N 54.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 03/1800Z 34.5N 55.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart
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Tropical Storm Kate Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2021-08-30 22:35:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 30 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 302035 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM KATE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102021 2100 UTC MON AUG 30 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER REINHART
Summary for Tropical Storm Kate (AT5/AL102021)
2021-08-30 22:35:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KATE REMAINS A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 PM AST Mon Aug 30 the center of Kate was located near 22.7, -50.9 with movement N at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Kate Public Advisory Number 11
2021-08-30 22:35:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Aug 30 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 302034 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kate Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 500 PM AST Mon Aug 30 2021 ...KATE REMAINS A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.7N 50.9W ABOUT 805 MI...1295 KM ENE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kate was located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 50.9 West. Kate is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected through early Tuesday. Then, a northwestward motion is forecast through midweek. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are forecast during the next couple of days. Some slow strengthening is possible by Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center in the eastern semicircle. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
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Tropical Storm Kate Forecast Advisory Number 11
2021-08-30 22:35:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 30 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 302034 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM KATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102021 2100 UTC MON AUG 30 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 50.9W AT 30/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 50.9W AT 30/2100Z AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 50.9W FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 23.7N 50.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 24.7N 50.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 25.8N 51.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 27.0N 52.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 28.4N 53.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 30.1N 54.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 34.5N 55.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N 50.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0300Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART
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