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Tropical Storm Julian Forecast Advisory Number 4

2021-08-29 22:38:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 000 WTNT21 KNHC 292038 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM JULIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112021 2100 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.7N 44.6W AT 29/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 21 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 90SE 40SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 120SE 90SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.7N 44.6W AT 29/2100Z AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.0N 45.6W FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 38.8N 41.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 100SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 42.2N 38.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 100SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 46.3N 36.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 51.0N 37.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 55.0N 39.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.7N 44.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

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Summary for Tropical Storm Nora (EP4/EP142021)

2021-08-29 19:53:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...NORA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD NEAR THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... As of 12:00 PM MDT Sun Aug 29 the center of Nora was located near 24.1, -107.3 with movement NNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

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Tropical Storm Nora Public Advisory Number 16A

2021-08-29 19:53:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1200 PM MDT Sun Aug 29 2021 586 WTPZ34 KNHC 291753 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nora Intermediate Advisory Number 16A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 1200 PM MDT Sun Aug 29 2021 ...NORA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD NEAR THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.1N 107.3W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM NW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM ENE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Hurricane Warning south of Escuinapa and has changed the Hurricane Warning to a Tropical Storm Warning from Escuinapa to Altata. The Hurricane Watch from north of Altata to Topolobampo has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Escuinapa to Topolobampo Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cabo San Lucas to La Paz Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Sinaloa, Sonora, and Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Nora. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nora was located near latitude 24.1 North, longitude 107.3 West. Nora is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A northwestward motion is expected to continue tonight through Tuesday. Nora is forecast to move very near and roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico early this week. However, even a small deviation to the right of the forecast track could cause Nora to move inland and dissipate within the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the couple of days as the center moves roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico. However, rapid weakening will likely occur if the center moves inland sooner than forecast. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are ongoing in portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area in mainland Mexico, and are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area in Baja California Sur on Monday. RAINFALL: Nora is expected to produce additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches across the coastal portions of the states of Guerrero and Michoacan through Monday. Heavy rainfall is likely along the west coast of Mexico from Colima to Sonora through late week as Nora lifts northward through the Gulf of California. Rainfall of 8 to 12 inches with maximum amounts of 20 inches is possible. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches is possible in Baja California Sur. Toward the middle and latter part of the week, moisture associated with Nora is likely to bring heavy rainfall and the potential for scattered flash flooding to portions of the southwestern U.S. and central Rockies. STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds within the tropical storm warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the coast of Baja California Sur and into the Gulf of California early this week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

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Tropical Storm Nora Graphics

2021-08-29 19:53:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Aug 2021 17:53:27 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Aug 2021 15:40:32 GMT

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Tropical Storm Julian Graphics

2021-08-29 16:54:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Aug 2021 14:54:18 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Aug 2021 14:54:18 GMT

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