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Tropical Storm Julian Graphics
2021-08-29 22:40:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Aug 2021 20:40:29 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Aug 2021 20:40:30 GMT
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Tropical Storm Julian Forecast Discussion Number 4
2021-08-29 22:39:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 PM GMT Sun Aug 29 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 292039 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Julian Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112021 900 PM GMT Sun Aug 29 2021 The convective pattern and structure of Julian has remained consistent throughout today, with the low-level center remaining tucked under the southwestern edge of a deep convective mass and good outflow in the northeastern semicircle. A late morning ASCAT-C overpass sampled peak winds of 45 to 47 kt, and since the cyclone has likely intensified slightly since that time, the initial intensity has been increased to 50 kt. Julian is now moving quickly to the northeast, or 050/21 kt in southwesterly flow to the south of a deep-layer area of low pressure located just east of Newfoundland. The storm is forecast to continue to move northeastward at a similar forward speed through Monday, and then begin to turn northward then northwestward Monday night through Tuesday as the cyclone moves around the periphery of the larger low. The model track guidance continues to be in excellent agreement on this scenario, and the latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one. A cold front associated with the low east of Newfoundland has already begun to interact with the circulation of Julian, as noted by dry air being pulled into the southern portion of the circulation, and linear banding developing to the south of the cyclone. Baroclinic forcing could allow for some slight additional strengthening through tonight. However, Julian should cross the 26 C isotherm this evening, and reach waters of 22 C by 24 h while interacting with the cold front and associated mid- to upper level trough to its north. These factors should cause the cyclone to go through extratropical transition tonight through tomorrow morning, with the transition complete by late tomorrow. The latest SHIPS guidance as well as the FSU phase-space diagrams depict this transition scenario. Once extratropical, the system should dissipate within a couple of days over the north Atlantic. The latest NHC intensity forecast was essentially an update of the previous one, and is close to the HCCA and IVCN solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 36.7N 44.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 38.8N 41.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 42.2N 38.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 31/0600Z 46.3N 36.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 31/1800Z 51.0N 37.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 01/0600Z 55.0N 39.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Summary for Tropical Storm Julian (AT1/AL112021)
2021-08-29 22:39:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JULIAN STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL ON MONDAY... As of 9:00 PM GMT Sun Aug 29 the center of Julian was located near 36.7, -44.6 with movement NE at 24 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Julian Public Advisory Number 4
2021-08-29 22:39:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 PM GMT Sun Aug 29 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 292039 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Julian Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112021 900 PM GMT Sun Aug 29 2021 ...JULIAN STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL ON MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.7N 44.6W ABOUT 815 MI...1315 KM SE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND ABOUT 970 MI...1560 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Julian was located near latitude 36.7 North, longitude 44.6 West. Julian is moving toward the northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so, followed by a turn to the north, then northeast Monday night into Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible through tonight. Julian is expected to become post-tropical by Monday evening. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM GMT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Julian Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2021-08-29 22:39:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 000 FONT11 KNHC 292039 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM JULIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112021 2100 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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