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Tropical Storm Edouard Forecast Discussion Number 8
2020-07-06 10:45:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Jul 06 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 060845 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Edouard Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052020 500 AM AST Mon Jul 06 2020 Satellite imagery indicates that Edouard is comprised of an exposed swirl of low- to mid-level clouds with a strong cluster of convection over the northeastern quadrant. Various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates range from 35-45 kt, and the initial intensity is held at a possibly conservative 35 kt. Due to the rapid motion, it is possible that the system no longer has a closed circulation. However, there is not enough evidence of this to justify stopping advisories at this time. The initial motion is quickly northeastward or 055/31. Edouard is embedded in strong southwesterly mid-latitude flow, and a fast motion toward the northeast should continue until the cyclone dissipates. The new track forecast is little changed from the previous forecast, and it lies near the center of the tightly clustered model guidance. The cyclone is located in a region of strong southwesterly vertical wind shear, is heading for colder water, and is approaching a frontal system. This combination should lead to extratropical transition between 12-24 h, and it is possible that Edouard could strengthen a little as transition occurs. After transition, the extratropical low should persist for another 24 h or so before the circulation dissipates. The new intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 39.0N 53.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 41.3N 48.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 44.7N 41.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 07/1800Z 48.0N 33.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 08/0600Z 51.6N 25.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Tropical Storm Edouard (AT5/AL052020)
2020-07-06 10:45:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...EDOUARD MOVING QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Mon Jul 6 the center of Edouard was located near 39.0, -53.6 with movement NE at 36 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Edouard Public Advisory Number 8
2020-07-06 10:45:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Jul 06 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 060845 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Edouard Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052020 500 AM AST Mon Jul 06 2020 ...EDOUARD MOVING QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.0N 53.6W ABOUT 530 MI...855 KM S OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 36 MPH...57 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Edouard was located near latitude 39.0 North, longitude 53.6 West. Edouard is moving toward the northeast near 36 mph (57 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little significant change in strength is forecast before Edouard is forecast to become post-tropical later today or tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) mainly to the southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Edouard Forecast Advisory Number 8
2020-07-06 10:45:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUL 06 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 060845 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052020 0900 UTC MON JUL 06 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.0N 53.6W AT 06/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 31 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 150SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.0N 53.6W AT 06/0900Z AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 55.3W FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 41.3N 48.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 70SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 44.7N 41.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 80SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 48.0N 33.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 90SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 51.6N 25.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.0N 53.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Edouard Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2020-07-06 10:45:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUL 06 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 060845 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052020 0900 UTC MON JUL 06 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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