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Tropical Storm Boris Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2020-06-26 04:34:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUN 26 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 260234 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM BORIS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032020 0300 UTC FRI JUN 26 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BORIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 137.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm Boris Forecast Advisory Number 7
2020-06-26 04:33:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUN 26 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 260233 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM BORIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032020 0300 UTC FRI JUN 26 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 137.9W AT 26/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 137.9W AT 26/0300Z AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 137.6W FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 11.8N 138.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 12.1N 140.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 12.3N 141.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 12.3N 142.8W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 12.1N 144.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 11.8N 146.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.4N 137.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Boris Graphics
2020-06-25 22:53:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 25 Jun 2020 20:53:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 25 Jun 2020 20:53:41 GMT
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boris
Tropical Storm Boris Forecast Discussion Number 6
2020-06-25 22:52:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM HST Thu Jun 25 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 252052 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Boris Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032020 1100 AM HST Thu Jun 25 2020 Convection has increased further in association with the tropical cyclone, with the center now under a poorly-organized band or dense overcast. A just-received ASCAT-A overpass indicates that 35-kt winds are occurring over an area about 40 n mi from the center in the southeastern semicircle and based on this, the depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Boris. While conditions appear to be favorable for some additional strengthening for the next 12 h or so, none of the intensity guidance forecasts significant intensification during that time. Thus, the intensity forecast holds the intensity at 35 kt through 12 h. After that time, increasing vertical wind shear and dry air entrainment should cause Boris to weaken, leading to the system degenerating to a remnant low by 60 h and dissipating completely after 72 h. The new intensity forecast has been adjusted downward, but it still is a little above the intensity consensus. The initial motion is now west-northwestward or 285/8. This motion should continue for the next 24 h or so as Boris moves along the south side of a low- to mid-level ridge. After that, a turn toward the west and west-southwest is forecast as the cyclone weakens and the low-level trade winds become the dominant steering mechanism. The new forecast track has only minor changes from the previous forecast, and it again lies the near consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 11.2N 137.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 11.5N 138.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 11.9N 139.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 12.2N 140.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 27/1800Z 12.3N 141.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 28/0600Z 12.2N 143.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/1800Z 12.0N 145.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Boris Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2020-06-25 22:47:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUN 25 2020 735 FOPZ13 KNHC 252047 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM BORIS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032020 2100 UTC THU JUN 25 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BORIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 137.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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