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Tropical Storm Cristina Graphics
2020-07-07 16:49:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 07 Jul 2020 14:49:47 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 07 Jul 2020 14:49:47 GMT
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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-07-07 16:48:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 071448 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 1000 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2020 Early morning microwave and first-light visible imagery revealed that the center of Cristina was located well to the east-northeast of previous estimates. The center is now located near the end of a long curved band that goes around portions of its western semicircle. The center position relative to the convection suggests that at least some northeasterly shear is negatively affecting the organization of Cristina and it may not be well vertically aligned yet. Various satellite intensity estimates have increased since the last advisory, but were also based in part on an assumption that the center of Cristina was located farther west, so the initial wind speed has been conservatively held at 35 kt for now. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted a fair amount to the east of the previous one, mainly due to the updated initial position. That said, the overall thinking behind the forecast has not changed. A mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. should steer Cristina on a general west-northwestward path through the end of the week. The official forecast is very near the latest multi-model consensus at all forecast times. The shear and some nearby dry air that appear to have inhibited Cristina's organization so far are not expected to persist as negative factors for much longer. All of the models still forecast strengthening, and given the very favorable environment that the cyclone will encounter in a day or two, a period of rapid intensification at some point would not be surprising. The NHC forecast remains near the high end of the guidance envelope, near the HFIP Corrected Consensus. Cristina is forecast to reach cooler waters that will likely lead to weakening over the weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 12.2N 102.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 12.9N 104.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 13.9N 106.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 15.0N 108.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 15.9N 110.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 10/0000Z 16.9N 112.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 17.9N 113.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 11/1200Z 19.5N 118.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 12/1200Z 21.0N 123.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Summary for Tropical Storm Cristina (EP5/EP052020)
2020-07-07 16:46:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CRISTINA FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR TWO... As of 10:00 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 the center of Cristina was located near 12.2, -102.8 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Cristina Public Advisory Number 4
2020-07-07 16:46:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2020 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 071446 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 1000 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2020 ...CRISTINA FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR TWO... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.2N 102.8W ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was located near latitude 12.2 North, longitude 102.8 West. Cristina is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days, keeping the cyclone well away from the coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is anticipated and Cristina is forecast to become a hurricane in a day or two. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Cristina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2020-07-07 16:46:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 07 2020 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 071446 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 1500 UTC TUE JUL 07 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 105W 34 1 7( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) 15(15) 38(53) 6(59) X(59) X(59) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 5(27) X(27) X(27) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 4(22) X(22) X(22) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) X(20) X(20) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 38(38) 26(64) 1(65) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 20(36) 1(37) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 14(24) 1(25) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) X(12) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 22(35) 1(36) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 1(16) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 20(43) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 12(19) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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