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Tropical Storm Edouard Graphics
2020-07-06 04:39:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 06 Jul 2020 02:39:09 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 06 Jul 2020 02:39:10 GMT
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edouard
Tropical Storm Edouard Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-07-06 04:38:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Jul 05 2020 773 WTNT45 KNHC 060238 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Edouard Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052020 1100 PM AST Sun Jul 05 2020 Satellite images indicate that the cyclone has become better organized during the past several hours, with a large convective burst causing a better-defined low-level circulation. While the center is now becoming exposed due to southwesterly shear, the maximum winds have almost certainly increased from earlier, so the initial wind speed is set to 35 kt. A recent partial ASCAT pass of at least 30 kt outside the RMW also supports the upgrade to a tropical storm, and the CIMSS satellite consensus (SATCON) is even higher than the analyzed intensity. Edouard is moving northeastward even faster than before, or 055/30 kt. Model guidance is in fairly good agreement on a quick northeastward or east-northeastward motion for the next couple of days before the system degenerates into a trough. Extratropical transition is anticipated by 24 hours due to forcing from a middle-latitude trough and a frontal boundary. Some minor strengthening of Edouard due to the transition process is possible over the next day or so before the global models show a gradual weakening. The track forecast has been adjusted a bit faster to account for the latest guidance and initial forward speed, and the intensity forecast has also been nudged upward to account for the current wind speed. Edouard is the earliest known 5th named storm on record for the Atlantic basin in the satellite era (1966-present), breaking the record formerly held by Emily on July 12, 2005. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 37.2N 56.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 39.6N 51.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 42.9N 44.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 07/1200Z 46.5N 37.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 08/0000Z 50.0N 29.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Summary for Tropical Storm Edouard (AT5/AL052020)
2020-07-06 04:36:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...EDOUARD FORMS OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL ON MONDAY... As of 11:00 PM AST Sun Jul 5 the center of Edouard was located near 37.2, -56.9 with movement NE at 35 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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edouard
Tropical Storm Edouard Public Advisory Number 7
2020-07-06 04:36:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Jul 05 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 060236 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Edouard Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052020 1100 PM AST Sun Jul 05 2020 ...EDOUARD FORMS OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL ON MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.2N 56.9W ABOUT 685 MI...1100 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Edouard was located near latitude 37.2 North, longitude 56.9 West. Edouard is moving toward the northeast near 35 mph (56 km/h), and an even faster motion in that general direction is anticipated during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little significant change in strength is forecast before Edouard is forecast to become post-tropical on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Edouard Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2020-07-06 04:36:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUL 06 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 060236 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052020 0300 UTC MON JUL 06 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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