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Tropical Storm Ida Forecast Advisory Number 2
2021-08-26 22:45:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 26 2021 363 WTNT24 KNHC 262044 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092021 2100 UTC THU AUG 26 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAYMAN ISLANDS * CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...HAVANA...ARTEMISA... PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...IN THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND ALONG THE NORTHERN U.S. GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TONIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 79.8W AT 26/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 79.8W AT 26/2100Z AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 79.4W FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 19.7N 81.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 21.7N 82.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 23.7N 84.8W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 25.6N 87.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 27.2N 88.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 60SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 28.9N 90.4W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 70SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 31.9N 91.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 34.6N 90.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 79.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 27/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Nora Graphics
2021-08-26 22:39:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 26 Aug 2021 20:39:31 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 26 Aug 2021 21:30:40 GMT
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Tropical Storm Nora Forecast Discussion Number 5
2021-08-26 22:38:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 262037 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Nora Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 400 PM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021 Scatterometer data from around midday showed that Nora has an expansive circulation with tropical-storm-force winds nearly reaching the coast of Mexico. The data also showed a possible center embedded within a larger area of light winds, but it is possible that there's another similar feature farther west where the instrument did not sample. Nora's winds remain 35 kt based on the ASCAT pass and the latest Dvorak fixes from TAFB and SAB, and the center has been placed between the two dumb-belling vorticity maxima. Even with the updated position, Nora is moving toward the west-northwest (285/8 kt), to the south of mid-level ridging over the southern United States. A shortwave trough currently over the northern Rockies is expected to erode the ridge over the next 12-24 hours, allowing Nora to turn toward the northwest and then north-northwest by the weekend. Even with the GFS's solution of multiple swirls consolidating over the next day or so, the 12Z run shifted left and now shows Nora potentially moving inland over Mexico farther west than it had in previous runs. A few of the other models--for example the HWRF and HMON--also bring the center inland as well, but the bulk of the interpolated model trackers continue to keep Nora just offshore but very near the coast of southwestern Mexico in about 48 hours. Model spread remains larger than normal, but no significant changes were required from the previous NHC track forecast based on the latest guidance suite. After passing southwestern Mexico, Nora is expected to be over Baja California Sur or the Gulf of California on days 4 and 5. Moderate northeasterly shear continues to affect Nora, but that shear is expected to decrease to a less-intrusive magnitude during the next 24 hours. Along with warm sea surface temperatures of 28-30 degrees Celsius, a moist mid-level environment, and upper-level divergence, Nora is expected to strengthen in the coming days. The rate of intensification could, however, be tempered by Nora's large size and structure. Assuming Nora does not move inland over southwestern Mexico, the storm is expected to become a hurricane on Saturday and then possibly continue strengthening up until the point it reaches the Baja California Peninsula. Much of the intensity guidance is based on scenarios showing Nora moving inland, which is suppressing the intensity consensus aids. Therefore, the NHC intensity forecast is mostly based on the ECMWF-based SHIPS and LGEM models, since the parent ECMWF model does not show Nora moving inland. Given Nora's larger wind field, tropical-storm-force winds are likely to reach the coast of Mexico earlier than expected. Therefore, the government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of the southwestern coast of Mexico. The Hurricane Watch issued earlier today also remains in effect. Key Messages: 1. Nora is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane by Saturday while it is near the coast of southwestern Mexico, and a hurricane watch and tropical storm warnings are in effect for portions of that area. Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should closely monitor the progress of this system and updates to the forecast. 2. Heavy rain associated with Nora is expected across coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. As a result, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides could occur. 3. Nora is forecast to be near the southern portion of Baja California Sur as a hurricane early next week, bringing a risk of wind and rain impacts to that area. Given the above average uncertainty in the forecast, it is too soon to determine the magnitude and location of these potential impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 13.4N 101.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 14.1N 102.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 15.3N 103.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 16.8N 104.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 28/1800Z 18.6N 105.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 29/0600Z 20.3N 106.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 29/1800Z 21.6N 107.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 30/1800Z 23.6N 110.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...OVER BAJA CAL SUR 120H 31/1800Z 25.2N 111.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER BAJA CAL SUR $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Nora Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2021-08-26 22:37:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 26 2021 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 262037 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021 2100 UTC THU AUG 26 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 35(56) 7(63) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 5(26) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 37(58) 7(65) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 4(25) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) 12(38) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) LA PAZ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 14(22) LORETO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) LORETO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 7(18) LOS MOCHIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 2(13) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 54(63) 4(67) X(67) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 2(28) X(28) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) 9(35) 1(36) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) 1(21) X(21) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 26(36) X(36) 1(37) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 105W 34 3 48(51) 9(60) 1(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) 15N 105W 50 X 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 36(39) 10(49) X(49) X(49) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MANZANILLO 34 X 3( 3) 18(21) 36(57) 5(62) 1(63) X(63) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) L CARDENAS 34 1 7( 8) 9(17) 3(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) ZIHUATANEJO 34 1 6( 7) 4(11) 2(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) 15N 100W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ACAPULCO 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 7(27) 1(28) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) 1(12) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 25N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 25N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Summary for Tropical Storm Nora (EP4/EP142021)
2021-08-26 22:37:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HURRICANE WATCHES AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND... As of 4:00 PM CDT Thu Aug 26 the center of Nora was located near 13.4, -101.7 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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