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Tropical Storm Marty Forecast Advisory Number 4
2021-08-24 04:34:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 24 2021 937 WTPZ23 KNHC 240234 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132021 0300 UTC TUE AUG 24 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 115.8W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 115.8W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 115.1W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 20.7N 117.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 20.7N 119.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 20.7N 121.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 20.7N 123.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 20.5N 126.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 20.1N 128.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 18.7N 133.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 115.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/PASCH
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Tropical Storm Marty Graphics
2021-08-23 22:43:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 23 Aug 2021 20:43:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 23 Aug 2021 21:28:18 GMT
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Tropical Storm Marty Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2021-08-23 22:41:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 23 2021 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 232041 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132021 2100 UTC MON AUG 23 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Summary for Tropical Storm Marty (EP3/EP132021)
2021-08-23 22:41:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MARTY STRENGTHENS A LITTLE WHILE PASSING TO THE NORTH OF CLARION ISLAND... ...EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC... As of 3:00 PM MDT Mon Aug 23 the center of Marty was located near 20.9, -114.1 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Marty Public Advisory Number 3
2021-08-23 22:41:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Aug 23 2021 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 232041 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Marty Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132021 300 PM MDT Mon Aug 23 2021 ...MARTY STRENGTHENS A LITTLE WHILE PASSING TO THE NORTH OF CLARION ISLAND... ...EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.9N 114.1W ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marty was located near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 114.1 West. Marty is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A westward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is forecast over the next few days. Satellite-derived surface wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected this afternoon and tonight. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin on Tuesday, and Marty is expected to weaken to a tropical depression by early Wednesday and degenerate into a remnant low Wednesday night or early Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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