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Tropical Storm Nora Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4

2021-08-26 16:47:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 26 2021 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 261446 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021 1500 UTC THU AUG 26 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 24(27) 20(47) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 12(19) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 25(28) 22(50) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 11(18) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 16(22) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) LA PAZ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 29(31) 22(53) 2(55) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 12(20) 1(21) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 15(23) 4(27) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 6(16) 1(17) SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 5(27) X(27) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) P VALLARTA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 15N 105W 34 X 7( 7) 22(29) 3(32) 2(34) X(34) X(34) 15N 105W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 31(36) 2(38) X(38) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) 28(51) 1(52) X(52) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) X(15) X(15) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) L CARDENAS 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 8(15) 4(19) X(19) X(19) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) 2(12) 1(13) X(13) 15N 100W 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ACAPULCO 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 15(21) 5(26) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 2(12) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Tropical Storm Marty Graphics

2021-08-24 10:39:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 24 Aug 2021 08:39:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 24 Aug 2021 08:39:50 GMT

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Tropical Storm Marty Forecast Discussion Number 5

2021-08-24 10:39:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue Aug 24 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 240838 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Marty Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132021 200 AM PDT Tue Aug 24 2021 Satellite imagery indicates that Marty is currently a swirl of low-level clouds with no associated convection, with this likely due to a combination of northeasterly vertical shear and marginal sea surface temperatures. Recent ASCAT data shows maximum winds of 30-35 kt over a small area in the northern semicircle, so the initial intensity is reduced to 35 kt. The initial motion is still westward, but slower than before, at 270/11 kt. The subtropical ridge to the north of Marty will continue to steer the cyclone generally westward over the next day or two. After that, the weakening cyclone is expected to turn west- southwestward during the latter part of the week within the low-level trade wind flow. The new forecast track is similar to, but a little slower than the previous forecast, and it lies near the various consensus models. Although the current shear is forecast to diminish, a combination of decreasing sea surface temperatures and a dryer air mass along the forecast track should cause continued gradual weakening. The new intensity forecast shows the system weakening to a depression in about 24 h and degenerating to a remnant low by 48 h. If convection does not re-develop near the center, both of these events could occur earlier than forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 20.6N 117.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 20.6N 118.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 20.6N 120.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 20.7N 122.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 20.6N 124.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 26/1800Z 20.4N 127.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/0600Z 19.8N 129.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 28/0600Z 18.5N 134.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

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Summary for Tropical Storm Marty (EP3/EP132021)

2021-08-24 10:37:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...MARTY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES WESTWARD... As of 2:00 AM PDT Tue Aug 24 the center of Marty was located near 20.6, -117.0 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Tropical Storm Marty Public Advisory Number 5

2021-08-24 10:37:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue Aug 24 2021 554 WTPZ33 KNHC 240837 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Marty Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132021 200 AM PDT Tue Aug 24 2021 ...MARTY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.6N 117.0W ABOUT 480 MI...775 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marty was located near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 117.0 West. Marty is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A westward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected over the next couple of days, followed by a turn to the west-southwest on Thursday. Recent satellite wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds are now near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued gradual weakening is expected, and Marty is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression by early Wednesday and degenerate to a remnant low by Wednesday night or Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

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