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Tropical Storm Marty Forecast Advisory Number 3
2021-08-23 22:41:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 23 2021 581 WTPZ23 KNHC 232041 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132021 2100 UTC MON AUG 23 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 114.1W AT 23/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 40SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 114.1W AT 23/2100Z AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 113.4W FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 21.0N 116.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 21.0N 118.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 21.0N 120.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 20.9N 122.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 20.9N 124.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 20.8N 127.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 19.4N 131.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.9N 114.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Marty Graphics
2021-08-23 16:33:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 23 Aug 2021 14:33:37 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 23 Aug 2021 15:28:16 GMT
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Tropical Storm Marty Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2021-08-23 16:32:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 23 2021 571 FOPZ13 KNHC 231432 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132021 1500 UTC MON AUG 23 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 53 8(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) 20N 115W 50 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 120W 34 X 3( 3) 16(19) 7(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm Marty Forecast Discussion Number 2
2021-08-23 16:32:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon Aug 23 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 231432 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Marty Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132021 900 AM MDT Mon Aug 23 2021 Marty is now a sheared tropical cyclone owing to northeasterly vertical wind shear of about 15 kt, which has displaced the bulk of the deep convection, with cloud tops colder than -80C, into the western semicircle. The low-level center is estimated be located near the northeastern edge of the sharp convective cloud shield. The initial intensity remains 35 kt based on a subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimate of T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and an objective estimate of T2.6/37 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT. The initial motion remains westward or 280/13 kt. A strong deep-layer subtropical ridge to the north of Marty is forecast by the global and regional models to remain entrenched across the eastern Pacific basin, keeping Marty moving in a general westward direction for the next couple of days. On days 3 and 4, the ridge is forecast build southward slightly, nudging the cyclone in a west-southwestward direction. The new NHC track forecast is similar to but slightly north, or right, of the previous advisory track, and is also a little south of the tightly packed consensus track models which have shifted northward on this cycle. The moderate northeasterly shear currently affecting Marty is forecast to gradually decrease to 10 kt or less and also become easterly during the next 24-36 hours while the cyclone remains over sea-surface temperatures (SST) of 26 deg C or greater. These favorable conditions should allow for at least slight strengthening during that time. Although the shear is expected to remain low through the remainder of the forecast period, Marty will be moving over sub-26C SSTs and into a drier and more stable airmass. Those unfavorable environmental conditions should combine to erode the central deep convection and weaken the cyclone on days 3 and 4. Marty is forecast to become a depression on Wednesday, degenerate into a remnant low on Thursday, and dissipate on Friday. The official intensity forecast is essentially just an update of the previous NHC forecast, and is about 5 kt above all of the available intensity guidance through 60 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 20.5N 112.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 20.6N 114.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 20.6N 117.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 20.5N 119.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 20.4N 121.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 26/0000Z 20.3N 123.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/1200Z 20.2N 125.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/1200Z 19.3N 130.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Storm Marty (EP3/EP132021)
2021-08-23 16:32:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MARTY PASSING TO THE NORTH OF SOCORRO ISLAND... ...EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC... As of 9:00 AM MDT Mon Aug 23 the center of Marty was located near 20.5, -112.4 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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