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Tropical Storm Ida Public Advisory Number 3
2021-08-27 04:51:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021 000 WTNT34 KNHC 270251 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ida Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 1100 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021 ...HURRICANE WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.6N 80.5W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Sabine Pass to the Alabama/Florida border including Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Mobile Bay A Hurricane Watch has been issued from Cameron, Louisiana eastward to the Mississippi/Alabama border, including Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and metropolitan New Orleans. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Sabine Pass to Alabama/Florida border * Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Mobile Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cameron, Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cayman Islands * Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, Havana, Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in central and western Cuba, in the northern Yucatan Peninsula, and elsewhere along the northern U.S. Gulf coast should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ida was located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 80.5 West. Ida is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (26 km/h) and this general motion should continue over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Ida will pass near or over the Cayman Islands during the next few hours, the Isle of Youth and western Cuba Friday, and over the southeastern and central Gulf of Mexico Friday night and Saturday. The system is forecast to approach the U.S. northern Gulf coast on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Ida is forecast to become a hurricane over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico in a day or two with additional strengthening expected thereafter. Ida could be near major hurricane strength when it approaches the northern Gulf coast. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the immediate coast of the Isle of Youth and near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast of western Cuba. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Morgan City, LA to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake Borgne...7-11 ft Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion Bay...4-7 ft Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL border...4-7 ft MS/AL border to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...3-5 ft Lake Pontchartrain...3-5 ft Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft Sabine Pass to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands tonight, and are expected to reach the Isle of Youth and portions of western Cuba in the warning area on Friday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area along the northern Gulf coast late Saturday night or Sunday and tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area late Saturday night or Sunday. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ida is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches with maximum totals of 15 inches across Jamaica. Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches are expected across the Cayman Islands and western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth. These rainfall amounts may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Tropical Storm Ida is likely to bring rainfall amounts of 8 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts up to 15 inches along the central Gulf Coast Sunday into Monday. This is likely to result in flash, urban, small stream, and riverine flooding to the central Gulf Coast. SURF: Swells generated by this system will affect Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and Cuba tonight and Friday. Swells will begin reaching portions of the northern Gulf coast Saturday night or early Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Ida Forecast Discussion Number 3
2021-08-27 04:51:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021 000 WTNT44 KNHC 270251 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Ida Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 1100 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021 The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating Ida this evening and found maximum flight-level winds of 47 kt at 2500 ft. This data along with numerous unflagged 35-kt SFMR winds supported raising the intensity to 35 kt earlier this evening. Since the aircraft departed Ida, there has been generally little change in the storm's structure, so the initial intensity is held at 35 kt. Ida is an asymmetric tropical storm with most of the deep convection and stronger winds confined to the eastern half of the circulation. Both the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters will be investigating Ida Friday morning. The storm has been wobbling around, but smoothing through the recent erratic motion yields an initial motion estimate of 320/10 kt. A mid-level ridge centered off the southeast U.S. coast is expected to shift westward on Friday and over the weekend. This feature should keep Ida moving in a general northwestward motion for the next 2 or 3 days, taking the core of the system over western Cuba Friday afternoon or evening and then across the southern and central Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Although there is some timing differences in the models, they are in fairly good agreement that Ida will make landfall in Louisiana late Sunday or early Monday. The GFS and ECMWF ensemble members basically span a similar region and are most concentrated across the state of Louisiana. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track as impacts will extend far from the center and the average 72-hour track error is around 120 miles. There is some southwesterly vertical wind shear affecting Ida at the moment, which is the likely part of the reason the cloud pattern and wind field are asymmetric. However, the global model show the upper-level pattern becoming quite favorable late Friday and through the weekend. These more conducive winds aloft combined with very warm SSTs and abundant moisture is likely to result in steady or rapid intensification until Ida makes landfall in the U.S. The intensity guidance unanimously show Ida becoming a hurricane, but there is notable spread in how strong the system will become. Given the expected favorable environmental conditions for the storm, the NHC intensity forecast lies near the high end of the model guidance, in best agreement with the regional hurricane models. It is also worth noting that even though the global models are not particularly accurate in predicting tropical cyclone winds, the GFS and ECMWF show the minimum pressure falling more than 35 mb from the current conditions. Based on all of this information, there is higher-than-normal confidence that a significant hurricane will be approaching the Gulf coast late in the weekend. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Cayman Islands tonight and in portions of western Cuba and the Isle of Youth Friday, where a dangerous storm surge is also possible in areas of onshore flow. Life-threatening heavy rains, flash flooding and mudslides are expected across Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth. 2. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge inundation along the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama, where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect. Interests in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. There is an increasing risk of dangerous hurricane-force winds beginning Sunday along the portions of the coasts of Louisiana and Mississippi, including metropolitan New Orleans, where a Hurricane Watch is in effect. 4. Ida is likely to produce heavy rainfall Sunday into Monday along the central Gulf coast resulting in flash, urban, small stream, and riverine flooding. Heavy rainfall and flooding impacts are likely along the central Gulf Coast Sunday into Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 18.6N 80.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 19.9N 82.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 21.8N 83.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR CUBA 36H 28/1200Z 23.8N 85.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 25.6N 88.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 29/1200Z 27.3N 89.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 30/0000Z 29.0N 90.6W 95 KT 110 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 96H 31/0000Z 32.0N 91.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 120H 01/0000Z 33.9N 88.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Nora Forecast Discussion Number 6
2021-08-27 04:51:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 270251 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Nora Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 1000 PM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021 A large area of deep convection has developed over the southern and western portions of Nora's circulation over the past several hours. Almost all of the convection is displaced to the southwest of Nora's center by some moderate northeasterly shear. Based on the slightly improved satellite appearance of the cyclone, the initial intensity is raised to 40 kt for this advisory. This is in best agreement with the objective UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON estimates of around 40 kt. Nora has turned a bit to the right and accelerated slightly this evening, and it is now moving west-northwestward or 295/10 kt. The mid-level ridge over the southern United States that is steering Nora is being eroded by a shortwave trough over the Rocky Mountains. In response, Nora is expected to turn toward the northwest on Friday and then the north-northwest on Saturday. This will bring the center of the cyclone close to the southwestern coast of Mexico. The ECMWF and UKMET as well as almost all the ECMWF ensemble members keep Nora offshore, passing just offshore of Cabo Corrientes before moving toward the entrance to the Gulf of California and Baja California Sur. However, the GFS and many of its ensemble members still show Nora moving inland over southwestern Mexico on Saturday. Overall, the multi-model track guidance consensus changed little this cycle, and so the official NHC track forecast remains very close to the previous one. The extended forecast still shows Nora moving near or over Baja California Sur and the Gulf of California on days 4 and 5. However, it is worth noting that the degree of uncertainty in this portion of the forecast is above average. The moderate northeasterly wind shear over Nora is expected to diminish over the next 12-24 h, which should allow the cyclone to intensify within a moist and unstable environment over SSTs around 29 deg C. Thus, Nora is forecast to strengthen over the next few days and become a hurricane on Saturday. Of course, this is highly dependent on Nora remaining offshore and not moving inland over mainland Mexico. Since the NHC track forecast keeps Nora offshore, the official intensity forecast lies on the high end of the intensity guidance and is closest to the ECMWF-based SHIPS and LGEM models. In this case, the normally reliable intensity consensus aids are of limited use since several of the consensus members bring Nora inland. Weakening is forecast on days 4-5 due to expected land interaction with Baja California Sur. The government of Mexico has extended the Tropical Storm Warning northward from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes, and issued a Tropical Storm Watch north of Cabo Corrientes to San Blas. Additional watches and warnings may be required on Friday. Key Messages: 1. Nora is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane on Saturday while it is near the coast of southwestern Mexico, and a hurricane watch and tropical storm warning are in effect for portions of that area. Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should closely monitor the progress of this system and updates to the forecast. 2. Heavy rain associated with Tropical Storm Nora is expected across coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur. 3. Nora is forecast to be near or over the southern portion of Baja California Sur as a hurricane early next week, bringing a risk of wind and rain impacts to that area. Given the above average uncertainty in the forecast, it is still too soon to determine the magnitude and location of these potential impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 14.1N 102.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 14.9N 103.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 16.3N 104.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 18.0N 105.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 19.9N 106.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 29/1200Z 21.5N 107.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 30/0000Z 22.7N 108.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 31/0000Z 24.4N 110.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...NEAR BAJA CAL SUR 120H 01/0000Z 26.0N 112.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER BAJA CAL SUR $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Ida Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2021-08-27 04:50:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 27 2021 000 FONT14 KNHC 270250 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM IDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092021 0300 UTC FRI AUG 27 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MARATHON FL 34 X 6( 6) 4(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) KEY WEST FL 34 X 9( 9) 7(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) NAPLES FL 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 9(16) 2(18) 1(19) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 8(20) 1(21) 1(22) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 12(18) 4(22) X(22) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 5(18) 2(20) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 4(13) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 2(13) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 8(24) 1(25) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 8(27) 1(28) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 26(45) 2(47) 1(48) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) 13(39) 2(41) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 36(37) 15(52) 1(53) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 9(20) 1(21) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 41(42) 18(60) 1(61) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 11(25) 2(27) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 1(11) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 53(56) 12(68) 1(69) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 9(33) X(33) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) 1(14) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 31(33) 52(85) 2(87) X(87) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 47(52) 2(54) 1(55) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 28(29) 2(31) X(31) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 29(42) 4(46) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 2(14) JACKSON MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 48(50) 19(69) 1(70) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 15(36) 1(37) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 8(16) 1(17) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 61(74) 6(80) 1(81) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 44(45) 7(52) X(52) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 5(29) X(29) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 39(40) 26(66) 3(69) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 19(33) 1(34) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) X(13) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 50(51) 19(70) 2(72) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 17(38) 1(39) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 10(17) X(17) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 31(47) 3(50) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 1(19) ALEXANDRIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 32(33) 27(60) 3(63) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 18(28) 1(29) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 1(13) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 37(38) 25(63) 2(65) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 17(30) 1(31) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 1(14) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 32(35) 9(44) 1(45) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 5(15) 1(16) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 17(22) 3(25) SHREVEPORT LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 26(39) 3(42) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 1(16) FORT POLK LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 22(41) 2(43) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) 1(18) LAKE CHARLES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 28(29) 17(46) 2(48) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 11(19) 1(20) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 20(28) 3(31) JASPER TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) JASPER TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 17(25) 2(27) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) KOUNTZE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 18(30) 1(31) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 10(22) 1(23) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 1(14) HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) HOUSTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 1(12) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 6(15) 1(16) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 13(22) 2(24) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) HIGH ISLAND TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) COZUMEL MX 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 1 37(38) 20(58) 2(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X 5( 5) 12(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HAVANA 34 2 35(37) 4(41) 2(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) ISLE OF PINES 34 10 69(79) 1(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) ISLE OF PINES 50 X 14(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) ISLE OF PINES 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CIENFUEGOS 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GRAND CAYMAN 34 72 1(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) GRAND CAYMAN 50 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm Ida Forecast Advisory Number 3
2021-08-27 04:50:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 27 2021 000 WTNT24 KNHC 270250 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092021 0300 UTC FRI AUG 27 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SABINE PASS TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER INCLUDING VERMILION BAY...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MOBILE BAY A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM CAMERON...LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER...INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SABINE PASS TO ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER * VERMILION BAY...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MOBILE BAY A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAMERON LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAYMAN ISLANDS * CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...HAVANA...ARTEMISA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...IN THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN U.S. GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 80.5W AT 27/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 80.5W AT 27/0300Z AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 80.1W FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 19.9N 82.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 21.8N 83.9W...NEAR CUBA MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 23.8N 85.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 25.6N 88.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 27.3N 89.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 29.0N 90.6W...NEAR THE COAST MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 32.0N 91.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 33.9N 88.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 80.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 27/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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