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Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Advisory Number 11
2021-08-10 04:33:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 10 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 100233 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 0300 UTC TUE AUG 10 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 112.9W AT 10/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 60SE 90SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 60SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 112.9W AT 10/0300Z AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 112.5W FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 18.1N 114.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 70SE 90SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.0N 115.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 70SE 90SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 20.0N 116.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 70SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 21.0N 118.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 21.8N 120.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 22.7N 123.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 24.6N 127.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 26.2N 132.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 112.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Kevin Graphics
2021-08-09 22:34:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 09 Aug 2021 20:34:37 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 09 Aug 2021 20:34:38 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Kevin (EP1/EP112021)
2021-08-09 22:32:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...POORLY ORGANIZED KEVIN CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE... As of 3:00 PM MDT Mon Aug 9 the center of Kevin was located near 17.0, -112.2 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Kevin Public Advisory Number 10
2021-08-09 22:32:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Aug 09 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 092032 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kevin Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 300 PM MDT Mon Aug 09 2021 ...POORLY ORGANIZED KEVIN CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 112.2W ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kevin was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 112.2 West. Kevin is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so. A weakening trend is expected to begin by Wednesday evening. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kevin are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, and are expected to spread northward to the coast of Baja California Sur today and Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Discussion Number 10
2021-08-09 22:32:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Aug 09 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 092032 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 300 PM MDT Mon Aug 09 2021 Visible satellite imagery and satellite wind data have revealed today that Kevin is a poorly organized tropical cyclone. The circulation is elongated from northeast-to-southwest, with one dominant, exposed low-level cloud swirl pivoting around the larger cyclonic gyre. The center has been initialized a little to the southwest of the exposed swirl, closer to a generalized mean cyclonic center. Satellite wind data also indicate that tropical-storm-force winds are confined to the southern semicircle, with a swath of 35-41 kt winds covering an area up to 110 n mi from the estimated center. Assuming some instrument undersampling, and based on the latest pair of 3.0 (45 kt) T-numbers from TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity remains at 45 kt. Kevin has not been able to get its act together over warm waters and within the favorable thermodynamic environment, likely due to moderate northeasterly shear and a subsequent lack of persistent deep convection over the center. The overall environment that the storm is interacting with is not expected to change much over the next 36 h. And, since the structure of the cyclone is not conducive for imminent strengthening, additional intensification is no longer anticipated. After 36 h, Kevin will begin to move over decreasing SSTs and into a more stable atmospheric environment. These unfavorable thermodynamic conditions should cause the cyclone to begin weakening. By 96 hours, the system is forecast to be over water temperatures of less than 22 degrees C, which should result in the cyclone degenerating into a remnant low. The latest NHC intensity forecast was adjusted slightly lower once again, and is in good agreement with the latest consensus intensity guidance. Kevin continues to move to the west-northwest, or 300/08 kt, along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. This steering pattern is forecast by all of the forecast models to remain intact for the next several days, resulting in a continued west-northwestward motion. The track guidance has once again shifted slightly northward after 24 h. Therefore, the latest NHC track forecast was also nudged a little to the north, and lies on the southern end of the tightly clustered track guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 17.0N 112.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 17.7N 113.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 18.5N 114.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 19.3N 116.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 20.4N 117.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 12/0600Z 21.2N 119.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 12/1800Z 22.0N 121.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 13/1800Z 23.6N 126.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 14/1800Z 25.5N 131.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto
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