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Summary for Tropical Storm Kevin (EP1/EP112021)
2021-08-08 04:31:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KEVIN STRENGTHENS A LITTLE... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR SO... As of 9:00 PM MDT Sat Aug 7 the center of Kevin was located near 15.8, -107.7 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Kevin Public Advisory Number 3
2021-08-08 04:31:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Sat Aug 07 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 080231 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kevin Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 900 PM MDT Sat Aug 07 2021 ...KEVIN STRENGTHENS A LITTLE... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR SO... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 107.7W ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 510 MI...820 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kevin was located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 107.7 West. Kevin is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest on Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast over the next couple of days, and Kevin is expected to become a hurricane Sunday night or Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kevin are expected to begin affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico on Sunday, and spread northward to the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula coast early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Advisory Number 3
2021-08-08 04:31:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 08 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 080231 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 0300 UTC SUN AUG 08 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 107.7W AT 08/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 107.7W AT 08/0300Z AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 107.3W FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 15.7N 108.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 15.7N 110.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 16.1N 111.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 16.9N 112.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 17.7N 113.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 18.6N 115.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 20.5N 118.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 22.2N 123.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 107.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Kevin Graphics
2021-08-07 22:42:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 07 Aug 2021 20:42:33 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 07 Aug 2021 20:42:33 GMT
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Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Discussion Number 2
2021-08-07 22:38:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Aug 07 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 072038 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 300 PM MDT Sat Aug 07 2021 Visible satellite imagery has continued to show an improvement in the cloud pattern of the tropical cyclone today. Banding has increased over the western and southern portions of the circulation while a small CDO has developed near the center. Scatterometer data from around 1700 UTC revealed an area of 30-kt winds to the northwest of the center, but with the continued increase in organization and Dvorak T-numbers of T2.5 from both TAFB and SAB the initial wind speed has been increased to 35 kt. Kevin becomes the eleventh named storm in the eastern Pacific basin during the 2021 season, which is running about a month ahead of schedule as the eleventh named storm typically does not form until early-to-mid September. Kevin is located within an environment of low-to-moderate shear, warm sea surface temperatures, and a moist atmosphere. These conditions are expected to support steady strengthening over the next few days, and the cyclone is expected to become a hurricane in about 36 hours. There is some spread in the intensity guidance with the statistical guidance on the more aggressive side as compared to some of the dynamical models. The NHC wind speed forecast lies a little above the various consensus models but slightly below the SHIPS guidance. The storm is moving westward or 270/9 kt. A mid-tropospheric ridge that extends across the subtropical eastern Pacific is forecast to steer Kevin generally westward during the next 36 hours. After that time, a cut-off low west of the Baja peninsula is expected to erode the western portion of the ridge causing Kevin to turn west- northwestward to northwestward through the remainder of the forecast period. The GFS, which depicts an unrealistic elongation of the system's low-level vorticity in about 48 hours, shows a much sharper northward or northwestward motion from 48-72 hours. Less weight was placed on that solution with the NHC track remaining closer to the bulk of the guidance and the various consensus aids. The latest track forecast is similar to, but a little slower than previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 15.8N 106.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 15.8N 108.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 15.7N 109.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 15.7N 110.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 16.2N 111.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 10/0600Z 17.3N 112.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 10/1800Z 18.2N 114.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 11/1800Z 19.9N 117.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 12/1800Z 21.9N 122.2W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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