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Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Discussion Number 7
2021-08-09 04:34:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Sun Aug 08 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 090234 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 900 PM MDT Sun Aug 08 2021 Satellite images indicate that Kevin has been relatively steady in strength over the past several hours. Deep convection is most organized near the center and over the western half of the circulation, with microwave images showing the center partially exposed. This asymmetric cloud pattern is due to about 15 kt of northeasterly wind shear. The Dvorak classifications from TAFB, SAB, and CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin are largely unchanged and range from 45 to 55 kt, and based on that data the initial intensity is once again held at 50 kt. Kevin is moving westward at a relatively slow pace of 7 kt. There has been little change in the track forecast rationale. A general west-northwestward motion is expected during the next several days as Kevin moves in the flow on the southwest side of a mid-level ridge. The track models have trended a little to the north this cycle, and the NHC track forecast has been nudged in that direction. Despite being over warm 29 degree C waters and embedded in a moist air mass, northeasterly shear has limited the amount of strengthening during the past day or so. Since the shear is expected to continue, Kevin is only forecast to strengthen slowly during the next day or two. After that time, however, progressively cooler waters and a more stable environment should cause a gradual decay. The NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one, following the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids. The cyclone will likely become a remnant low by the end of the forecast period when it is expected to be over cool 22 C waters. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 16.0N 110.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 16.4N 111.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 17.2N 112.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 18.0N 114.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 18.7N 115.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 11/1200Z 19.6N 117.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 12/0000Z 20.6N 119.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 13/0000Z 22.1N 123.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 14/0000Z 23.5N 128.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Kevin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2021-08-09 04:33:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 09 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 090233 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 0300 UTC MON AUG 09 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KEVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA CLARION 34 X 3( 3) 66(69) 15(84) 1(85) X(85) X(85) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 27(27) 19(46) 1(47) X(47) X(47) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) 9( 9) 10(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) 15N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 26(39) 5(44) X(44) X(44) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 33(35) 6(41) X(41) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) X(12) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Summary for Tropical Storm Kevin (EP1/EP112021)
2021-08-09 04:33:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KEVIN HOLDING STEADY IN STRENGTH BUT STILL FORECAST TO INTENSIFY... As of 9:00 PM MDT Sun Aug 8 the center of Kevin was located near 16.0, -110.3 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Kevin Public Advisory Number 7
2021-08-09 04:33:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Sun Aug 08 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 090233 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kevin Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 900 PM MDT Sun Aug 08 2021 ...KEVIN HOLDING STEADY IN STRENGTH BUT STILL FORECAST TO INTENSIFY... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 110.3W ABOUT 475 MI...770 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kevin was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 110.3 West. Kevin is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is expected overnight, and that general motion should continue during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is expected during the next day or two, and Kevin could become a hurricane Monday night or Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kevin are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, and are expected to spread northward to the coast of Baja California Sur during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Advisory Number 7
2021-08-09 04:32:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 09 2021 578 WTPZ21 KNHC 090232 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 0300 UTC MON AUG 09 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 110.3W AT 09/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 110.3W AT 09/0300Z AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 110.0W FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 16.4N 111.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 17.2N 112.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 18.0N 114.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 18.7N 115.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 19.6N 117.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 20.6N 119.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 22.1N 123.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 23.5N 128.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 110.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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