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Summary for Tropical Storm Kevin (EP1/EP112021)
2021-08-09 16:32:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KEVIN MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH AS IT CONTINUES TO BATTLE WIND SHEAR... As of 9:00 AM MDT Mon Aug 9 the center of Kevin was located near 16.6, -111.5 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Kevin Public Advisory Number 9
2021-08-09 16:32:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon Aug 09 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 091432 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kevin Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 900 AM MDT Mon Aug 09 2021 ...KEVIN MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH AS IT CONTINUES TO BATTLE WIND SHEAR... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.6N 111.5W ABOUT 445 MI...720 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kevin was located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 111.5 West. Kevin is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight strengthening is possible during the next couple of days, followed by a gradual weakening trend thereafter. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kevin are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, and are expected to spread northward to the coast of Baja California Sur today and Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Advisory Number 9
2021-08-09 16:32:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 09 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 091432 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 1500 UTC MON AUG 09 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 111.5W AT 09/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 60SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 120SE 60SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 111.5W AT 09/1500Z AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 111.2W FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 17.3N 112.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 18.1N 114.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 18.9N 115.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 19.7N 117.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 20.6N 119.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 21.4N 121.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 23.0N 125.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 24.5N 130.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 111.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Storm Kevin Graphics
2021-08-09 10:37:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 09 Aug 2021 08:37:44 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 09 Aug 2021 08:37:45 GMT
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Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Discussion Number 8
2021-08-09 10:36:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon Aug 09 2021 320 WTPZ41 KNHC 090836 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 300 AM MDT Mon Aug 09 2021 Kevin is a sheared tropical cyclone. Satellite imagery indicates the low-level center lies near the edge of the dense overcast, which has a sharp border in the northeastern quadrant of the cyclone. The associated deep convection is displaced well to the southwest of Kevin's partially exposed center. Recent scatterometer data only show 25 to 30-kt winds near the center, but the full southwestern quadrant where the most intense convection is occurring was not sampled. The initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt for this advisory, in best agreement with the subjective final Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and SAB. This estimate could still be generous, however. The cyclone has turned west-northwestward during the past 12 h, and its estimated motion is now 290/6 kt. The track forecast reasoning is unchanged, as Kevin is expected to move west-northwestward for most of the forecast period along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. The official NHC track forecast has been adjusted a bit northward again this cycle, following the trend of the latest multi-model consensus aids. Although Kevin has been embedded within a favorable thermodynamic environment, 15 to 20 kt of northeasterly shear has thus far limited its rate of strengthening. This shear is expected to persist for the next couple of days, so it seems likely that Kevin will continue to struggle intensifying, despite warm SSTs and a moist, unstable environment. By the time the vertical wind shear diminishes, Kevin will have gained enough latitude that the underlying SSTs will be unfavorable for further strengthening. The new intensity guidance is much lower than previous cycles, and so the latest NHC intensity forecast has been reduced by 5 to 10 kt at all forecast hours. Thus, Kevin is no longer forecast to become a hurricane. By day 5, the system is expected to become a post-tropical remnant low over sub-22 deg C waters. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 16.3N 110.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 16.8N 111.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 17.6N 113.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 18.4N 115.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 19.2N 116.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 11/1800Z 20.1N 118.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 12/0600Z 21.0N 120.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 13/0600Z 22.5N 124.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 14/0600Z 24.0N 129.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
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