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Tropical Storm Jimena Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13

2021-08-06 04:31:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 06 2021 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 060231 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM JIMENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092021 0300 UTC FRI AUG 06 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JIMENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 137.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 140W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Tropical Storm Jimena Forecast Advisory Number 13

2021-08-06 04:30:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 06 2021 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 060230 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM JIMENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092021 0300 UTC FRI AUG 06 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 137.8W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 137.8W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 137.5W FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 17.5N 138.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.2N 140.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 18.7N 141.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 19.0N 143.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 19.4N 144.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 137.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Tropical Storm Jimena Graphics

2021-08-05 22:34:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 05 Aug 2021 20:34:47 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 05 Aug 2021 20:34:47 GMT

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Tropical Storm Jimena Forecast Discussion Number 12

2021-08-05 22:32:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1100 AM HST Thu Aug 05 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 052032 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Jimena Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021 1100 AM HST Thu Aug 05 2021 Jimena's cloud pattern, which has changed little since earlier this morning, consists of a fragmented curved band in the northwestern semicircle and a patch of deep convection just to the southeast of the surface center. The subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB remain unchanged (T2.5) and the initial intensity is held at 35 kt. Jimena has about another 12 hours or so before it traverses decreasing (sub-25C) sea-surface temperatures, and the surrounding environment becomes less favorable due to an intruding dry and stable air mass. Increasing west-northwesterly shear is also expected to negatively affect the cyclone beyond the 36 hour period. The official intensity forecast, which is similar to the IVCN intensity consensus model, indicates Jimena becoming a depression in about 24 hours and further weakening to a remnant low on Saturday, and opening up into a trough of low pressure on Sunday. The initial motions is estimated to be northwest, or 310/7 kt. A mid-tropospheric ridge situated to the northeast of the cyclone should keep Jimena moving toward the northwest through the 48 period. Afterward, a turn toward the west-northwest is forecast as the vertically shallow system is steered by the low-level environmental flow. The NHC track forecast, once again, follows the TVCN consensus aid closely, and is similar to the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 16.4N 137.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 17.0N 138.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 17.9N 139.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 18.8N 141.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 19.7N 142.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 08/0600Z 20.2N 143.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts

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Summary for Tropical Storm Jimena (EP4/EP092021)

2021-08-05 22:32:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...JIMENA EXPECTED TO BECOME A DEPRESSION ON FRIDAY... As of 11:00 AM HST Thu Aug 5 the center of Jimena was located near 16.4, -137.6 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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