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Tropical Storm Jimena Forecast Discussion Number 15
2021-08-06 16:37:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 AM HST Fri Aug 06 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 061437 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Jimena Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021 500 AM HST Fri Aug 06 2021 A convective mass continues to persist over the center of Jimena, although coldest cloud tops have warmed over the past few hours. A fortuitous 1105 UTC AMSR-2 pass shows the center a bit west of the earlier estimates, which places it beneath the coldest remaining cloud tops. The intensity is held at 35 kt based on a blend of Final-T and CI numbers from TAFB, SAB and ADT. This intensity is also supported by overnight ASCAT data and a more recent ship observation. Jimena is currently moving over SSTs near 24C. Going forward, westerly shear will increase along the cyclone's path during the next 12-24 hr. These factors should cause the tropical cyclone to weaken, and Jimena is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by Saturday morning. The NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the SHIPS and HCCA guidance. The initial motion estimate is 300/8 kt. As Jimena weakens, the increasingly shallow system is expected to be steered by the low-level trade-wind flow, which should cause it to gradually turn toward the west in about 48 hours. The ECMWF is a little faster and lies on the southwest side of the guidance envelope, while the GFS is slower and northeast of the consensus. The NHC forecast was adjusted to the southwest of the previous forecast during the first 12-24 hours based on the farther west initial position. Thereafter, the track is close to the previous forecast, and in best agreement with the HCCA and TVCN consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 17.5N 139.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 18.0N 140.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 18.7N 141.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 08/0000Z 19.2N 143.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/1200Z 19.5N 144.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 09/0000Z 19.6N 146.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen/Brown
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Tropical Storm Jimena Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2021-08-06 16:37:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 06 2021 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 061437 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM JIMENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092021 1500 UTC FRI AUG 06 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JIMENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 139.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 145W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Summary for Tropical Storm Jimena (EP4/EP092021)
2021-08-06 16:36:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...JIMENA STILL A TROPICAL STORM... ...EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC LATER TODAY... As of 5:00 AM HST Fri Aug 6 the center of Jimena was located near 17.5, -139.3 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Jimena Public Advisory Number 15
2021-08-06 16:36:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 AM HST Fri Aug 06 2021 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 061436 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jimena Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021 500 AM HST Fri Aug 06 2021 ...JIMENA STILL A TROPICAL STORM... ...EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 139.3W ABOUT 1045 MI...1680 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jimena was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 139.3 West. Jimena is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general is expected to continue during the next day or so. A turn toward the west is forecast to occur Saturday night or Sunday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Jimena is expected to degenerate into a remnant low Saturday morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Brown/Hagen
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Tropical Storm Jimena Forecast Advisory Number 15
2021-08-06 16:36:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 06 2021 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 061436 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM JIMENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092021 1500 UTC FRI AUG 06 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 139.3W AT 06/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 45SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 139.3W AT 06/1500Z AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 139.0W FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.0N 140.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 18.7N 141.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 19.2N 143.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 19.5N 144.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 19.6N 146.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 139.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN/HAGEN
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