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Summary for Tropical Storm Kevin (EP1/EP112021)
2021-08-07 22:37:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...YET ANOTHER TROPICAL STORM FORMS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC... As of 3:00 PM MDT Sat Aug 7 the center of Kevin was located near 15.8, -106.8 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Kevin Public Advisory Number 2
2021-08-07 22:37:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Aug 07 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 072037 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kevin Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 300 PM MDT Sat Aug 07 2021 ...YET ANOTHER TROPICAL STORM FORMS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 106.8W ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 530 MI...855 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kevin was located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 106.8 West. Kevin is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest or northwest on Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast over the next couple of days, and Kevin is expected to become a hurricane Sunday night or Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kevin are expected to begin affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico on Sunday, and spread northward to the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula coast early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Advisory Number 2
2021-08-07 22:37:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 07 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 072037 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 2100 UTC SAT AUG 07 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 106.8W AT 07/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 106.8W AT 07/2100Z AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 106.3W FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 15.8N 108.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 15.7N 109.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 15.7N 110.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 16.2N 111.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 17.3N 112.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 18.2N 114.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 19.9N 117.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 21.9N 122.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 106.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Kevin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2021-08-07 22:37:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 07 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 072037 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 2100 UTC SAT AUG 07 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KEVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 105W 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 110W 34 3 43(46) 25(71) 5(76) 1(77) X(77) X(77) 15N 110W 50 X 8( 8) 20(28) 3(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) 15N 110W 64 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 20N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) 7(16) 1(17) X(17) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 3( 3) 6( 9) 10(19) 17(36) 1(37) X(37) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 51(58) 19(77) X(77) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 18(37) X(37) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 8(17) X(17) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 11(18) 3(21) X(21) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 29(56) 1(57) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 18(23) X(23) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 24(40) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm Jimena Graphics
2021-08-06 16:38:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 06 Aug 2021 14:38:18 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 06 Aug 2021 14:38:18 GMT
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