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Tropical Storm Elsa Public Advisory Number 7
2021-07-02 10:49:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Jul 02 2021 544 WTNT35 KNHC 020849 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 500 AM AST Fri Jul 02 2021 ...ELSA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE AND IS VERY NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THERE IN A COUPLE OF HOURS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.7N 58.6W ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM ESE OF BARBADOS ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM ESE OF ST. VINCENT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the southern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the border with Haiti. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the entire coast of Haiti, and a Hurricane Watch has been issued for the southern portion of the country from Port Au Prince to the southern border with the Dominican Republic. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Barbados * Martinique * St. Lucia * St. Vincent and the Grenadines * The southern coast of Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the border with Haiti * Entire coast of Haiti A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Southern portion of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern border with the Dominican Republic A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Grenada and its dependencies * Saba and Sint Eustatius * Jamaica A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and Cuba should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 12.7 North, longitude 58.6 West. Elsa is moving quickly toward the west-northwest near 28 mph (44 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Elsa will pass near or over portions of the Windward Islands or the southern Leeward Islands this morning, move across the eastern Caribbean Sea late today and tonight, and move near the southern coast of Hispaniola on Saturday. By Sunday, Elsa is forecast to move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast over the next 12 to 24 hours, followed by little change in strength. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands within the warning areas and possible in the watch areas later today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas in the Dominican Republic and Haiti on Saturday, with hurricane conditions possible in southern Haiti. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Jamaica Saturday night or early Sunday. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Hispaniola. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Elsa is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches today across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados. This rain may lead to isolated flash flooding and mudslides. Over Puerto Rico, rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with localized amounts of 5 inches is expected late today into Saturday. This rain may lead to isolated flash flooding and minor river flooding, along with the potential for mudslides. Across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica, rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches is possible Saturday into Sunday. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding and mudslides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Berg
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Tropical Storm Elsa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2021-07-02 10:49:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUL 02 2021 482 FONT15 KNHC 020849 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 0900 UTC FRI JUL 02 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 11(19) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 11(19) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 10(19) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 7(20) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) 5(22) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 5(17) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 5(18) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 23(32) 4(36) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 25(33) 4(37) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) 10(33) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 11(21) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 15(31) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 16(27) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 19(26) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 3(12) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) 2(12) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 3(16) 1(17) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) X(10) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 19(28) 2(30) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) HAVANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 10(17) X(17) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 9(29) 1(30) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) CIENFUEGOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 29(31) 2(33) X(33) CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CAMAGUEY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 8(35) X(35) X(35) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 15(21) 1(22) X(22) MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MONTEGO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 10(24) X(24) X(24) KINGSTON 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) KINGSTON 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 52(58) 1(59) X(59) X(59) LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) LES CAYES 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) 35(35) 28(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CAPE BEATA 34 X 1( 1) 68(69) 6(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) 25(25) 5(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) CAPE BEATA 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PUERTO PLATA 34 X 1( 1) 13(14) 3(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X 1( 1) 13(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) PONCE PR 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) AGUADILLA PR 34 X 11(11) 5(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) SAN JUAN PR 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) VIEQUES PR 34 X 11(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) SAINT THOMAS 34 X 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAINT CROIX 34 1 12(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) SAINT MAARTEN 34 1 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SABA 34 2 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ST EUSTATIUS 34 3 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 4 6(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) BARBUDA 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ANTIGUA 34 5 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GUADELOUPE 34 14 4(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) AVES 34 15 45(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) DOMINICA 34 48 1(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) MARTINIQUE 34 78 X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) SAINT LUCIA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAINT LUCIA 50 42 X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) SAINT LUCIA 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAINT VINCENT 34 93 X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) SAINT VINCENT 50 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BARBADOS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BARBADOS 50 19 X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) GRENADA 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Advisory Number 7
2021-07-02 10:49:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUL 02 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 020849 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 0900 UTC FRI JUL 02 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE BORDER WITH HAITI. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI AND A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY FROM PORT AU PRINCE TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBADOS * MARTINIQUE * ST. LUCIA * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES * THE SOUTHERN COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE BORDER WITH HAITI * ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHERN PORTION OF HAITI FROM PORT AU PRINCE TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES * SABA AND SINT EUSTATIUS * JAMAICA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 58.6W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 24 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 0SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 75SE 0SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 58.6W AT 02/0900Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 57.3W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 13.8N 62.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 15.4N 67.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.1N 71.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.7N 75.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 30SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.2N 77.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.7N 79.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 40SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 25.2N 82.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 29.2N 82.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 58.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 02/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Summary for Tropical Storm Elsa (AT5/AL052021)
2021-07-02 07:40:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ELSA APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THERE LATER THIS MORNING... As of 2:00 AM AST Fri Jul 2 the center of Elsa was located near 12.1, -57.2 with movement WNW at 26 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Elsa Public Advisory Number 6A
2021-07-02 07:40:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM AST Fri Jul 02 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 020539 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 200 AM AST Fri Jul 02 2021 ...ELSA APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THERE LATER THIS MORNING... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.1N 57.2W ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM ESE OF BARBADOS ABOUT 280 MI...455 KM ESE OF ST. VINCENT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Netherlands has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Saba and Sint Eustatius. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Barbados * Martinique * St. Lucia * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Grenada and its dependencies * Saba and Sint Eustatius * The southern and western coasts of Haiti from the southern border of the Dominican Republic to Le Mole St. Nicholas * The southern coast of the Dominican Republic from the southern border of Haiti eastward to Punta Palenque * Jamaica A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and eastern Cuba should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 12.1 North, longitude 57.2 West. Elsa is moving quickly toward the west-northwest near 26 mph (43 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Elsa will pass near or over portions of the Windward Islands or the southern Leeward Islands later today, move across the eastern Caribbean Sea late today and tonight, and move near the southern coast of Hispaniola on Saturday. By Sunday, Elsa is forecast to move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast over the next 12 to 24 hours, followed by little change in strength. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km), mainly to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands within the warning areas later today. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch areas in the Lesser Antilles later today, are possible in the Dominican Republic and Haiti on Saturday, and are possible in Jamaica Saturday night. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Hispaniola. RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches today across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados. This rain may lead to isolated flash flooding and mudslides. Over Puerto Rico, rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with localized amounts of 5 inches is expected later today and into Saturday. This rain may lead to isolated flash flooding and minor river flooding, along with the potential for mudslides. Along portions of southern Hispaniola, rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches is possible on Saturday. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding and mudslides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Berg
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