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Tropical Storm Elsa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13

2021-07-03 16:46:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 03 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 031446 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 1500 UTC SAT JUL 03 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 18(22) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 18(25) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 15(25) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 10(17) AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 12(22) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 9(28) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 7(23) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 9(29) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 8(24) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 6(28) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 4(21) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 18(22) 4(26) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) 3(20) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 10(18) 1(19) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 10(18) 1(19) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 7(17) 1(18) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 5(19) X(19) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 12(18) 3(21) X(21) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 2(15) 1(16) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 10(15) 2(17) 1(18) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 26(45) 2(47) X(47) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 1(13) X(13) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 30(47) 3(50) X(50) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) X(16) X(16) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 28(33) 7(40) 1(41) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 9(25) X(25) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 15(39) X(39) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) 1(11) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 19(35) 2(37) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 24(32) 2(34) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 4(20) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 4(22) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 2(20) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) 2(23) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 2(15) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 3(12) X(12) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) ANDROS 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 5(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) GREAT EXUMA 34 X 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAN SALVADOR 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GRAND TURK 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) HAVANA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 13(27) X(27) X(27) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HAVANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) X(11) X(11) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 26(34) 3(37) X(37) X(37) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CIENFUEGOS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CAMAGUEY 34 X 5( 5) 39(44) 3(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 5 46(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) MONTEGO BAY 34 1 7( 8) 4(12) X(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) KINGSTON 34 2 8(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) LES CAYES 34 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) LES CAYES 50 52 5(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) LES CAYES 64 5 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 87 X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 12 X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) CAPE BEATA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CAPE BEATA 50 97 X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) PUERTO PLATA 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Tags: number speed wind storm

Summary for Tropical Storm Elsa (AT5/AL052021)

2021-07-02 12:18:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...ELSA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE AND IS VERY NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THERE IN A COUPLE OF HOURS... As of 5:00 AM AST Fri Jul 2 the center of Elsa was located near 12.7, -58.6 with movement WNW at 28 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Tags: summary storm tropical elsa

Tropical Storm Elsa Update Statement

2021-07-02 12:18:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 620 AM AST Fri Jul 2 2021 000 WTNT65 KNHC 021018 TCUAT5 Tropical Storm Elsa Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 620 AM AST Fri Jul 2 2021 The Meteorological Service of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Dominica. $$ Forecaster Beven

Tags: statement update storm tropical

Tropical Storm Elsa Graphics

2021-07-02 10:59:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 02 Jul 2021 08:59:43 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 02 Jul 2021 09:22:54 GMT

Tags: graphics storm tropical elsa

Summary for Tropical Storm Elsa (AT5/AL052021)

2021-07-02 10:49:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...ELSA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE AND IS VERY NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THERE IN A COUPLE OF HOURS... As of 5:00 AM AST Fri Jul 2 the center of Elsa was located near 12.7, -58.6 with movement WNW at 28 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Tags: summary storm tropical elsa

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