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Tropical Storm Enrique Graphics
2021-06-30 04:49:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 30 Jun 2021 02:49:15 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 30 Jun 2021 03:22:22 GMT
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Tropical Storm Enrique Forecast Discussion Number 20
2021-06-30 04:48:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Tue Jun 29 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 300248 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Enrique Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 900 PM MDT Tue Jun 29 2021 After spending nearly a day mostly devoid of deep, organized convection, Enrique was able to re-develop a small convective burst, beginning just after the previous advisory. While not particularly well-organized, the convective depth is fairly cold, between -65 to -70 C, and has been persistent enough near the low-level circulation center that it justifies maintaining advisories at this time. The initial intensity remains estimated at 35 kt in accordance with the earlier scatterometer data when Enrique still lacked convection, though this estimate could be generous given the lower subjective satellite estimates provided by SAB and TAFB. The cyclone continues to move to the northwest, but appears to have sped up a bit, with an estimated motion of 315/10 kt. This general heading should continue over the next 12 hours as the small storm continues to track further into the Gulf of California. Thereafter, the system is forecast to take a slight leftward bend, which could bring the tropical cyclone near the coast of Baja California by 24 hours. The most recent forecast track is very similar to the previous advisory, with the exception of a slight leftward shift after 24 hours, blending the reliable HCCA and TVCE consensus aids. Despite the recent small convective burst just east of Enrique's center, which was well anticipated by the ECMWF and HWRF, the cyclone is expected to spin down further, especially as its small circulation begins to interact with the higher terrain of Baja California. Enrique is expected to weaken into a tropical depression in the next 12 hours, with dissipation likely by 48 hours after moving over land. Key Messages: 1. The outer rainbands of Enrique may produce heavy rains across a portion of western Mexico and the southern Baja Peninsula during the next couple days. This rainfall over the mainland of Mexico will continue to pose a threat of flash flooding and mudslides. 2. Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico, and portions of the Gulf of California and the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 23.8N 109.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 24.5N 109.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 25.2N 110.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 36H 01/1200Z 25.5N 111.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi
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Summary for Tropical Storm Enrique (EP5/EP052021)
2021-06-30 04:41:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TINY ENRIQUE HANGING ON TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS WHILE MOVING INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA... As of 9:00 PM MDT Tue Jun 29 the center of Enrique was located near 23.8, -109.1 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Enrique Public Advisory Number 20
2021-06-30 04:41:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Tue Jun 29 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 300241 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Enrique Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 900 PM MDT Tue Jun 29 2021 ...TINY ENRIQUE HANGING ON TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS WHILE MOVING INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.8N 109.1W ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Enrique was located near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 109.1 West. Enrique is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next day or so followed by a slight turn to the left. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Enrique is expected to weaken to a tropical depression tomorrow and dissipate on Thursday near the Baja California Peninsula. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Enrique can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Enrique is expected to produce additional rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches across Sinaola, western Durango and southern Chihuahua in western Mexico and 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 4 inches across the southern portions of Baja California Sur. These rainfall totals may trigger flash flooding and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico, as well as portions of the Gulf of California and the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Enrique Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2021-06-30 04:41:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUN 30 2021 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 300241 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052021 0300 UTC WED JUN 30 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/CANGIALOSI
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