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Tropical Storm Andres Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2021-05-10 04:36:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON MAY 10 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 100236 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ANDRES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012021 0300 UTC MON MAY 10 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDRES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 1 14(15) 3(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) 15N 110W 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm Andres Forecast Advisory Number 4
2021-05-10 04:35:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON MAY 10 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 100235 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ANDRES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012021 0300 UTC MON MAY 10 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 109.0W AT 10/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 109.0W AT 10/0300Z AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 108.8W FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 14.8N 109.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 15.4N 109.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 15.8N 110.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 15.9N 111.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 15.9N 112.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 109.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Andres Graphics
2021-05-09 22:36:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 09 May 2021 20:36:17 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 09 May 2021 20:36:17 GMT
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Tropical Storm Andres Forecast Discussion Number 3
2021-05-09 22:35:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sun May 09 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 092035 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Andres Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012021 300 PM MDT Sun May 09 2021 The convective cloud pattern of Andres is rather ragged-looking at this time, and the system continues to show little evidence of banding features. However the cyclone is producing some very cold cloud tops over the eastern portion of the circulation. A partial scatterometer pass did not show tropical-storm-force winds, but it is believed that these could be occuring in the strong convection to the east of the center. The current intensity estimate remains at 35 kt in agreement with the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. The environment ahead of Andres looks very hostile, with increasing west-southwesterly shear and dry air in the mid- to lower-troposphere. Therefore, a weakening trend should begin tomorrow and the system is likely to degenerate into a remnant low in about 48 hours which is also indicated by the global model guidance. The scatterometer observations showed that the center was somewhat elongated zonally, but it appears to be a little south of the previously estimated track. Andres should move along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge for the next day or so, and then turn westward in 48-60 hours, following the low-level steering flow. The official track forecast is south of much of the model guidance on account of the more southward center location. This is not far from the latest GFS model solution. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 14.0N 108.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 14.7N 109.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 15.2N 109.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 15.6N 110.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 15.8N 111.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 12/0600Z 15.9N 112.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/1800Z 15.9N 113.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Andres Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2021-05-09 22:35:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN MAY 09 2021 827 FOPZ11 KNHC 092034 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ANDRES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012021 2100 UTC SUN MAY 09 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDRES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 X 15(15) 8(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) 15N 110W 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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