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Tropical Storm Polo Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-11-19 09:48:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 AM PST Thu Nov 19 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 190848 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Polo Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212020 100 AM PST Thu Nov 19 2020 Polo has been devoid of deep convection near the center for more than 6 hours. However, a narrow band of convection with cloud tops to -60 to -70 deg C has recently developed in the northeastern quadrant 30-40 nmi from the center, in the same location where a 0439Z partial ASCAT-B scatterometer pass indicated a few surface wind vectors of 34-35 kt. Therefore, Polo is being maintained as a tropical storm with an intensity of 35 kt for this advisory. The initial motion estimate is now 280/10 kt. A low-/mid-level ridge situated to the north of Polo should steer the small cyclone generally westward until it dissipates in a day or two. The new NHC track forecast is similar to but a tad south of the previous advisory track, and lies close to the tightly packed consensus models TVCE, GFEX, and NOAA-HCCA. Over the next two days, Polo is forecast to move into a less favorable environment consisting of moderate-to-strong westerly shear, a drier and more stable air mass, and sea-surface temperatures less than 26 deg C. As a result, convection should steadily weaken, causing Polo to gradually spin down and become a remnant low by this afternoon or tonight, and dissipate by 60 hours, if not sooner. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows the intensity consensus models IVCN and HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 17.1N 119.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 17.1N 120.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 17.1N 123.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 20/1800Z 17.0N 125.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 21/0600Z 16.6N 128.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Storm Polo (EP1/EP212020)
2020-11-19 09:45:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...POLO WEAKENS WHILE MOVING WESTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... As of 1:00 AM PST Thu Nov 19 the center of Polo was located near 17.1, -119.3 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Polo Public Advisory Number 7
2020-11-19 09:45:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 AM PST Thu Nov 19 2020 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 190845 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Polo Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212020 100 AM PST Thu Nov 19 2020 ...POLO WEAKENS WHILE MOVING WESTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 100 AM PST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.1N 119.3W ABOUT 730 MI...1175 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM PST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Polo was located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 119.3 West. Polo is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is anticipated, and Polo is forecast to become a remnant low pressure system later today, and dissipate by Friday night or Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 700 AM PST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Polo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2020-11-19 09:45:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU NOV 19 2020 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 190845 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM POLO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212020 0900 UTC THU NOV 19 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm Polo Forecast Advisory Number 7
2020-11-19 09:43:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU NOV 19 2020 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 190843 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212020 0900 UTC THU NOV 19 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 119.3W AT 19/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 30SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 119.3W AT 19/0900Z AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 118.8W FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.1N 120.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.1N 123.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 17.0N 125.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 16.6N 128.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 119.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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