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Tropical Storm Iota Forecast Discussion Number 19
2020-11-18 03:35:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 PM CST Tue Nov 17 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 180235 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Iota Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 900 PM CST Tue Nov 17 2020 Most of the deep convection associated with Iota has weakened during the past several hours, with the primary remaining convection now in a band well removed from the center in the northwestern semicircle. The initial intensity is reduced to 35 kt, and these winds are possibly occuring in two areas - a small area near what is left of the inner core and along the coast of Honduras in the Tropical Storm warning area. Iota should continue to quickly weaken, with the system expected to drop below tropical-storm strength during the next few hours and to dissipate completely between 12-24 h. At this time, the available guidance is not bullish on any regeneration of the system over the Pacific. The initial motion is 270/10. The cyclone or its remnants should move westward to west-southwestward before dissipation occurs. Iota is still expected to produce very serious hazards while it is over central America, including flash flooding and mud slides, These hazards could result in potentially catastrophic effects, especially when compounded upon Hurricane Eta's destruction from a couple of weeks ago. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding is expected through Thursday across portions of Central America due to heavy rainfall from Iota. Flooding and mudslides across portions of Honduras, Nicaragua and Guatemala could be exacerbated by saturated soils in place, resulting in significant to potentially catastrophic impacts. 2. Tropical-storm conditions, primarily close to the center of Iota and along the coast of Honduras, are still expected for the next few hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 13.7N 87.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 18/1200Z 13.4N 88.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 24H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Iota Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2020-11-18 03:35:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED NOV 18 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 180235 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM IOTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020 0300 UTC WED NOV 18 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IOTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Summary for Tropical Storm Iota (AT1/AL312020)
2020-11-18 03:35:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...IOTA WEAKENING RAPIDLY OVER SOUTHERN HONDURAS... ...THREAT OF CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... As of 9:00 PM CST Tue Nov 17 the center of Iota was located near 13.7, -87.3 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Iota Forecast Advisory Number 19
2020-11-18 03:35:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED NOV 18 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 180234 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM IOTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020 0300 UTC WED NOV 18 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM PUNTA CASTILLA EASTWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF HONDURAS WEST OF PUNTA CASTILLA TO THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER * BAY ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 87.3W AT 18/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......160NE 20SE 20SW 160NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 87.3W AT 18/0300Z...INLAND AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 86.8W...INLAND FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 13.4N 88.7W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 87.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 18/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Iota Public Advisory Number 19
2020-11-18 03:35:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 PM CST Tue Nov 17 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 180234 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Iota Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 900 PM CST Tue Nov 17 2020 ...IOTA WEAKENING RAPIDLY OVER SOUTHERN HONDURAS... ...THREAT OF CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 87.3W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SSW OF TEGUCIGALPA HONDURAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Honduras has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning from Punta Castilla eastward to the Honduras/Nicaragua border. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Honduras west of Punta Castilla to the Honduras/Guatemala border * Bay Islands A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Iota was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 87.3 West. Iota is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a westward to west-southwestward motion is expected tonight and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Iota should move across portions of southern Honduras and El Salvador before the system dissipates on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional rapid weakening is forecast, and Iota should weaken to a tropical depression tonight and degenerate into a remnant low pressure area on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) from the center, mainly along the coast in the Tropical Storm Warning area. La Ceiba, Honduras, reported a wind gust of 58 mph (93 km/h) during the past few hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Iota can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. WIND: Tropical-storm conditions will continue for a few more hours near the center of Iota and in the Tropical Storm Warning area well to the north of the center. RAINFALL: Iota is expected to produce the following additional rainfall accumulations through Thursday: El Salvador, Panama, western Honduras, northern Nicaragua, southern Belize : 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm). This rainfall will lead to significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. Southern Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches (250 mm). SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect much of the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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