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Tropical Storm Polo Graphics
2020-11-19 03:36:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Nov 2020 02:36:08 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Nov 2020 02:36:08 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Polo (EP1/EP212020)
2020-11-19 03:34:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...POLO MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND EXPECTED TO WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT... As of 7:00 PM PST Wed Nov 18 the center of Polo was located near 16.9, -118.3 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Polo Public Advisory Number 6
2020-11-19 03:34:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 PM PST Wed Nov 18 2020 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 190234 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Polo Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212020 700 PM PST Wed Nov 18 2020 ...POLO MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND EXPECTED TO WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 700 PM PST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.9N 118.3W ABOUT 685 MI...1100 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM PST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Polo was located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 118.3 West. Polo is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the west is expected later tonight or on Thursday, with this motion continuing through Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected to begin later tonight or on Thursday, and Polo is expected to decay to a remnant low pressure area on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 100 AM PST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Polo Forecast Discussion Number 6
2020-11-19 03:34:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 PM PST Wed Nov 18 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 190234 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Polo Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212020 700 PM PST Wed Nov 18 2020 Satellite imagery shows that the convection associated with Polo has diminished this evening, with the remaining convection now to the east of the exposed low-level center. The initial intensity is held at a possibly generous 35 kt as a blend of subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates. Polo is moving into an environment of moderate westerly shear, a dryer air mass, and decreasing sea surface temperatures, and the system should gradually weaken during the next 48 h. The new intensity forecast has minor adjustments from the previous forecast, and it calls for Polo to degenerate to a remnant low by 36 h and dissipate by 60 h. The initial motion is 285/11. A low-level ridge to the north of the cyclone should steer the system generally westward until it dissipates. and the new track forecast is an update of the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 16.9N 118.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 17.2N 119.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 17.3N 122.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 17.3N 124.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 21/0000Z 17.3N 126.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Polo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2020-11-19 03:34:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU NOV 19 2020 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 190234 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM POLO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212020 0300 UTC THU NOV 19 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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