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Tropical Storm Iota Forecast Advisory Number 2
2020-11-13 21:43:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI NOV 13 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 132043 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM IOTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020 2100 UTC FRI NOV 13 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNING IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THAT AREA TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 74.3W AT 13/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 74.3W AT 13/2100Z AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 74.2W FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 13.7N 75.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 13.7N 76.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 13.9N 77.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 14.2N 79.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 14.6N 81.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 15.0N 82.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 15.2N 85.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 14.7N 88.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 74.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Theta Graphics
2020-11-13 21:40:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Nov 2020 20:40:10 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Nov 2020 21:24:48 GMT
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Tropical Storm Theta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2020-11-13 21:38:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI NOV 13 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 132038 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM THETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020 2100 UTC FRI NOV 13 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM THETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 22.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Summary for Tropical Storm Theta (AT5/AL302020)
2020-11-13 21:38:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...THETA EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING SATURDAY AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON SUNDAY... As of 9:00 PM GMT Fri Nov 13 the center of Theta was located near 31.9, -22.6 with movement E at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Theta Public Advisory Number 16
2020-11-13 21:38:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 PM GMT Fri Nov 13 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 132038 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Theta Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 900 PM GMT Fri Nov 13 2020 ...THETA EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING SATURDAY AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.9N 22.6W ABOUT 490 MI...785 KM SSE OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Theta was located near latitude 31.9 North, longitude 22.6 West. A turn toward the east-southeast along with a slowing of forward speed is expected tonight. A continued slow east-southeastward motion is then expected through the weekend followed a turn sharply toward the north by early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast tonight. Weakening is expected through the weekend, and Theta should become a remnant low on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM GMT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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