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Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Discussion Number 16
2020-11-13 21:38:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 PM GMT Fri Nov 13 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 132038 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Theta Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 900 PM GMT Fri Nov 13 2020 Theta appears to be holding its own still, with a large curved band feature characterizing the bulk of the deep convection, and a smaller area of convection intermittently developing over the center. Like yesterday, there has been a lack of observational data over the system's core since last night. However, since Theta's organization has not appeared to change much since that time, the initial intensity is being kept at a somewhat uncertain 50 kt. Theta is forecast to change little in intensity into tonight as the cyclone continues moving in a relatively low shear zone associated with a mid- to upper-level trough axis. By tomorrow, strong northerly shear is forecast to begin impacting the system while stable air gets entrained into its circulation. As a result, Theta is expected to spin down over the weekend, degenerate to a remnant low on Sunday, and dissipate by the middle of next week. Theta is moving eastward at around 9 kt, steered by a mid-level ridge extending westward from west Africa to the eastern tropical Atlantic. A turn to the east-southeast along with a gradual slowing of the forward motion is expected overnight and continuing through the weekend as the ridge weakens, and mid- to upper level northerly winds impart on the cyclone. Early next week, what remains of Theta are expected to turn northward and then accelerate northeastward as a mid-latitude cyclone passes to the north of the region. The NHC forecast is little changed from the previous one and lies near the various consensus aids. On the forecast track, the center of Theta is forecast to track very near the westernmost Canary Islands. However, the system is forecast to weaken to a remnant low before reaching those islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 31.9N 22.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 31.7N 21.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 31.4N 19.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 31.3N 18.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 31.7N 17.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 16/0600Z 32.5N 17.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 16/1800Z 34.4N 17.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 17/1800Z 39.2N 12.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Advisory Number 16
2020-11-13 21:37:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI NOV 13 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 132037 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM THETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020 2100 UTC FRI NOV 13 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 22.6W AT 13/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT.......100NE 130SE 140SW 160NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 480SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 22.6W AT 13/2100Z AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 23.1W FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 31.7N 21.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 31.4N 19.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 31.3N 18.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 31.7N 17.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 32.5N 17.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 34.4N 17.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 39.2N 12.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.9N 22.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Storm Theta Graphics
2020-11-13 09:40:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Nov 2020 08:40:11 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Nov 2020 09:31:41 GMT
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Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Discussion Number 14
2020-11-13 09:38:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM GMT Fri Nov 13 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 130838 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Theta Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 900 AM GMT Fri Nov 13 2020 A fortuitous 0348 UTC AMSR2 microwave pass revealed that Theta's surface center was a little to the north of the previous advisory position. The image also indicated that the coldest brightness temperatures were located in the northeast quadrant which sort of conflicts with the earlier scatterometer data showing the stronger surface winds in the southeast quadrant. More than likely though, these winds are being produced by the pressure gradient of the cyclone and a mid-level ridge to the southeast. Since the cloud pattern has changed little during the past several hours and the subjective satellite intensity estimate from TAFB hasn't either, the initial intensity is held at 50 kt for this advisory. Theta is forecast to change little in intensity during the next 12 hours or so as the cyclone continues moving in a low shear zone associated with a mid- to upper-level trough axis. On Saturday, the trough migrates south of Theta, while strong northerly shear and a more stable air mass intrude from the northwest to north. As a result, Theta is expected to spin down and degenerate to a remnant low on Sunday and dissipate by mid next week. Theta has been moving eastward during the last 12 hours within the mid-level troposphere steering current provided by a mid-level ridge extending westward from west Africa to the eastern tropical Atlantic. The short term motion, however, already appears to be the anticipated to the right of track motion, or toward the east-southeast. Regardless, this general motion along with a reduction in forward speed is forecast during the next couple of days as a more vertically shallow Theta is influenced by the low-level flow. By day 3, the remnants of Theta are expected to turn rather sharply northward and continue in this general motion in response to an approaching deep-layer mid-latitude cyclone from the northeastern Atlantic. The NHC forecast is similar to the previous one through the 72 hour period, then adjusted to the right to align more with the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 31.9N 24.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 31.7N 23.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 31.4N 21.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 14/1800Z 31.1N 19.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 15/0600Z 30.9N 18.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 15/1800Z 31.1N 18.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 16/0600Z 32.1N 18.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 17/0600Z 36.0N 17.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Theta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2020-11-13 09:37:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI NOV 13 2020 628 FONT15 KNHC 130837 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM THETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020 0900 UTC FRI NOV 13 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM THETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 24.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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