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Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Advisory Number 19
2020-11-14 15:56:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT NOV 14 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 141456 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM THETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020 1500 UTC SAT NOV 14 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 20.2W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 100 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 0SE 80SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 300SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 20.2W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 20.6W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 31.6N 19.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 31.7N 18.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 32.4N 17.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 33.7N 17.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 36.1N 16.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.8N 20.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Storm Theta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2020-11-14 15:56:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT NOV 14 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 141456 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM THETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020 1500 UTC SAT NOV 14 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM THETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 20.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Tropical Storm Iota Graphics
2020-11-14 09:40:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 14 Nov 2020 08:40:47 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 14 Nov 2020 08:40:47 GMT
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Tropical Storm Iota Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-11-14 09:39:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 140839 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Iota Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 400 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2020 Satellite imagery and scatterometer data received since the last advisory indicate that Iota is a bit disorganized. The deep convection is currently not concentrated near the center, and the scatterometer wind data showed an elongated circulation with a trough extending west-southwestward from the center. The scatterometer data also showed maximum winds of 30-35 kt in the northeastern quadrant, and based on this, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Iota at around 18Z. Iota continues to move south of west with the initial motion of 245/4 kt. A mid-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico should build eastward to the north of Iota during the next day or two, and this feature should cause the cyclone to move westward at a somewhat faster forward speed through 72 h. This motion is expected to bring the center near or over the coasts of Nicaragua or Honduras near the 72-h point. After that time, a west-southwestward motion is forecast, with the center of the cyclone moving across portions of Central America. The new forecast track is similar to, but slightly slower than, the previous forecast, and it lies in the center of the guidance envelope near the various consensus models. Iota is currently experiencing light westerly wind shear produced by an upper-level trough to the west. The shear should subside over the next 12-24 h as the trough moves westward and dissipates, leaving the cyclone in more favorable upper-level winds and over sea surface temperatures near 29C. Thus, conditions appear conducive for steady to rapid intensification once the storm becomes well enough organized internally to take advantage of the favorable environment. The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and calls for rapid intensification to major hurricane intensity, with a peak intensity of near 105 kt as the system makes landfall in Central America. It should be noted that the HWRF and HMON forecast the center to go north of the official forecast track and keep it over water north of Honduras. As a result, they forecast a stronger cyclone than indciated by the official forecast. Key Messages: 1. Iota is expected to strengthen and be a major hurricane when it approaches the coast of Central America. There is a risk of dangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts across portions of Nicaragua and Honduras beginning Monday. Hurricane Watches will likely be issued for a portion of this area later today. 2. Through Wednesday, heavy rainfall from Iota will likely lead to life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of northern Colombia and Central America. Flooding and mudslides in Honduras and Nicaragua could be exacerbated by Hurricane Etas recent effects there, resulting in significant impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 13.5N 74.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 13.6N 75.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 13.9N 76.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 14.3N 78.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 14.5N 80.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 16/1800Z 14.8N 82.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 17/0600Z 14.9N 83.3W 105 KT 120 MPH...INLAND 96H 18/0600Z 14.5N 86.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 120H 19/0600Z 14.0N 89.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Tropical Storm Iota (AT1/AL312020)
2020-11-14 09:39:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...IOTA MOVING SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN... ...RISK OF DANGEROUS WINDS, STORM SURGE, AND RAINFALL IMPACTS IN CENTRAL AMERICA BEGINNING MONDAY... As of 4:00 AM EST Sat Nov 14 the center of Iota was located near 13.5, -74.8 with movement WSW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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