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Tropical Storm Iota Forecast Advisory Number 5
2020-11-14 15:57:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT NOV 14 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 141457 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM IOTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020 1500 UTC SAT NOV 14 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF COLOMBIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN ANDRES * PROVIDENCIA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IOTA...AND A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF THESE COUNTRIES. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 76.2W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 76.2W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 75.8W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 12.9N 76.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 13.4N 78.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 13.9N 80.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 14.2N 81.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 14.4N 83.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 14.5N 84.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 50SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 14.3N 86.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 13.5N 90.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 76.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 14/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Iota Public Advisory Number 5
2020-11-14 15:57:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 141457 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Iota Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 1000 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2020 ...IOTA REMAINS DISORGANIZED BUT STILL EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN... ...RISK OF DANGEROUS WINDS, STORM SURGE, AND RAINFALL IMPACTS IN CENTRAL AMERICA BEGINNING MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.7N 76.2W ABOUT 370 MI...590 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 495 MI...795 KM ESE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Colombia has issued a Tropical Storm warning for the islands of San Andres and Providencia. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * San Andres * Providencia A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of Iota, and a Hurricane Watch will likely be issued later today for portions of these countries. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Iota was located near latitude 12.7 North, longitude 76.2 West. Iota is moving toward the west-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A westward motion with some increase in forward speed is expected to begin later today and continue through Monday. On the forecast track, Iota will move across the central Caribbean Sea during the next day or so, and approach the coasts of Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is likely to begin tonight or Sunday, and Iota is forecast to be at or near major hurricane strength when it approaches Central America. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Rainfall: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Thursday: Honduras, northern Nicaragua, eastern Guatemala, southern Belize: 8 to 16 inches (200 to 400 mm). Isolated maximum totals of 20-30 inches (500 to 750 mm) will be possible, especially from northeast Nicaragua into northern Honduras. Costa Rica, Panama, and northern Colombia: 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm). This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. El Salvador, southern Nicaragua and southern Honduras: 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches (150 mm). Jamaica: 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm) Wind: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin on the islands of San Andres and Providencia late Sunday. SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect portions of the coast of Colombia, and the southern coasts of Hispaniola and Jamaica during the next day or two. Swells will begin to reach the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras on Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM EST. Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Discussion Number 19
2020-11-14 15:57:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 PM GMT Sat Nov 14 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 141457 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Theta Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 300 PM GMT Sat Nov 14 2020 Theta's center continues to be devoid of deep convection as dry air entrains into the system's circulation. The edge of the only nearby surviving convection is located about 60 n mi to the southeast of the cyclone's center due to increasing northwesterly shear. A recent ASCAT overpass showed a fair amount of wind vectors of 30-34 kt, therefore the initial intensity remains 35 kt for this advisory. The shear is expected to increase even more today, and the surrounding environment is forecast to dry out further. These factors, that should persist for at least the next few days, should prevent any new convection from developing near the center of Theta. The latest NHC forecast calls for the system to become a remnant low in 12 h and dissipate in 72 h, as the circulation gradually spins down. The storm is now moving just south of due east around 7 kt as it is steered along the northern periphery of a mid-level ridge. This ridge is forecast to weaken over the next couple of days, which will cause Theta to slow its forward motion. Early next week, increasing southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front should pick up the remnants of Theta and accelerate them northward, and then northeastward. The latest NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and lies near the track consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 31.8N 20.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 31.6N 19.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 15/1200Z 31.7N 18.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 16/0000Z 32.4N 17.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 16/1200Z 33.7N 17.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 17/0000Z 36.1N 16.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Summary for Tropical Storm Theta (AT5/AL302020)
2020-11-14 15:56:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...THETA EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY TONIGHT... As of 3:00 PM GMT Sat Nov 14 the center of Theta was located near 31.8, -20.2 with movement E at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Theta Public Advisory Number 19
2020-11-14 15:56:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 PM GMT Sat Nov 14 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 141456 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Theta Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 300 PM GMT Sat Nov 14 2020 ...THETA EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.8N 20.2W ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM SE OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Theta was located near latitude 31.8 North, longitude 20.2 West. Theta is moving toward the east near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected through Sunday. A sharp northward turn is forecast to occur Sunday night, with that motion continuing into early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected over the next few days, and Theta is forecast to become a remnant low by tonight, and dissipate early next week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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