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Tropical Storm Eta Graphics
2020-11-10 03:54:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 10 Nov 2020 02:54:45 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 10 Nov 2020 03:24:54 GMT
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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Discussion Number 39
2020-11-10 03:53:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 PM CST Mon Nov 09 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 100253 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 39 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 900 PM CST Mon Nov 09 2020 Eta's convective structure appears to be gradually becoming better organized this evening. The center is located near the northern edge of a band that wraps around the southeastern and southern portions of the circulation. Recent subjective Dvorak data T-numbers were 3.0, which still support an initial intensity of 45 kt. With Eta's structure gradually improving and a forecast for the cyclone to remain over SSTs of around 28C and in generally low vertical wind shear conditions, some re-strengthening is likely during the next 24-36 hours. Although the NHC intensity forecast shows Eta remaining just below hurricane strength, there is a possibility that the storm will briefly regain hurricane status over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico within the next day or so. By 48 hours, when the cyclone moves over the east-central Gulf of Mexico, increasing vertical wind shear and dry mid-level air are likely to result in weakening, and like the previous forecast, the new NHC forecast indicates that Eta could weaken to a tropical depression by the end of the period. Some of the global model guidance suggests that Eta could weaken even faster than indicated below after 72 hours. Recent satellite fixes indicate that Eta is moving southwestward but a little slower than before at around 8 kt. Eta should slow its forward progress overnight and then meander over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday as steering current collapse. In 36-48 hours, Eta should begin moving northward between a mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic and a broad trough over the central United States. After 72 hours, the spread in the guidance increases when Eta is expected to be weaker and be steered by the low-level flow. Most of the guidance shows a northwestward to northward motion at that time period but have varying forward speed. The NHC track shows a slow north-northwest motion late in the period to account for these differences. There is lower than normal confidence in the latter portion of the track forecast given the large spread in the guidance. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across portions of Cuba, the Bahamas, and southern Florida and spread north into central Florida. Additional flash and urban flooding, especially across previously inundated areas, will be possible in South Florida tonight. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for Cuba, the Bahamas and the remainder of southern Florida over the next several days. 2. Eta could approach the Florida Gulf Coast later this week as a tropical storm, and possibly bring impacts from rain, wind, and storm surge. Interests in this area should continue to monitor the progress of Eta and updates to the forecast this week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 23.2N 85.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 22.8N 85.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 23.4N 85.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 24.6N 85.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 12/0000Z 25.8N 85.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 12/1200Z 26.6N 85.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 13/0000Z 27.0N 85.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 14/0000Z 27.7N 85.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 15/0000Z 29.0N 86.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Eta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 39
2020-11-10 03:53:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE NOV 10 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 100253 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 39 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 0300 UTC TUE NOV 10 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MARATHON FL 34 X 5( 5) 5(10) 3(13) 2(15) 1(16) X(16) KEY WEST FL 34 1 7( 8) 9(17) 3(20) 2(22) X(22) 1(23) NAPLES FL 34 X 5( 5) 8(13) 5(18) 4(22) 1(23) 1(24) FT MYERS FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) VENICE FL 34 X 5( 5) 8(13) 9(22) 6(28) 1(29) 2(31) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TAMPA FL 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 9(15) 6(21) 3(24) 1(25) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 8(16) 3(19) 1(20) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 4( 9) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 3(10) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 11(17) 3(20) 3(23) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 12(24) 3(27) 3(30) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 8(13) 4(17) 3(20) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 9(15) 4(19) 3(22) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) 2(12) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 2 5( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 32 27(59) 3(62) X(62) 1(63) X(63) X(63) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) HAVANA 34 2 12(14) 8(22) 1(23) 1(24) 1(25) X(25) ISLE OF PINES 34 1 8( 9) 4(13) 1(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) 3(12) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Summary for Tropical Storm Eta (AT4/AL292020)
2020-11-10 03:53:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ETA EXPECTED TO RE-STRENGTHEN AS IT MEANDERS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON TUESDAY... As of 9:00 PM CST Mon Nov 9 the center of Eta was located near 23.2, -85.2 with movement SW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Eta Public Advisory Number 39
2020-11-10 03:53:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 PM CST Mon Nov 09 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 100253 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 39 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 900 PM CST Mon Nov 09 2020 ...ETA EXPECTED TO RE-STRENGTHEN AS IT MEANDERS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.2N 85.2W ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM SW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM NNW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 225 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours. Interests along the Gulf Coast of Florida should monitor the progress of Eta. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located near latitude 23.2 North, longitude 85.2 West. Eta is moving toward the southwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion with a reduction in forward speed is expected tonight. Little overall motion is forecast on Tuesday and a slow northward motion is expected Tuesday night and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will remain over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening will be possible tonight and Tuesday. Gradual weakening is expected to begin by late Wednesday and then continue through the end of the week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Saturday morning: The Bahamas: An additional 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 mm), with isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm). Portions of Cuba: an additional 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 25 inches (635 mm). Portions of the central and southern Florida peninsula, including the Keys: an additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm), with isolated maximum storm totals of 18 inches (450 mm) in South Florida. Flash and river flooding will be possible in Cuba, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Additional flash and urban flooding, especially across previously inundated areas, will be possible in South Florida tonight. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for the Bahamas and the remainder of southern and eastern Florida over the next several days. WIND: Gusty conditions will continue across the Florida Keys, south and central Florida, and the northwestern Bahamas tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in Cuba tonight and Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north coast of Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, southern Florida and the Florida Keys during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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