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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Discussion Number 38
2020-11-09 21:51:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM EST Mon Nov 09 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 092051 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 400 PM EST Mon Nov 09 2020 Eta's convective pattern now consists of mainly a compact ring of inner-core convection with cloud tops of -60C to -70C. The earlier main outer convective band located in the northeast quadrant has weakened considerably, and the inflow into that feature is now being shunted westward into Eta's inner-core region. Visible and water vapor satellite images also indicate that weak anticyclonic cirrus outflow has recently developed over the inner core. The last recon pass through Eta a few hours ago showed a pressure rise to 997 mb that was followed by a pressure decrease to 995 mb on the last pass. Both flight-level and SFMR-derived surface winds had also decreased and only supported around 45 kt, which is the initial intensity used for this advisory. The initial motion estimate is southwestward, or 235/14 kt. Mid- and upper-level water vapor images show a cut-off low located over the extreme northwestern Caribbean Sea near the Isle of Youth. This feature, in conjunction with a deep-layer ridge extending across Florida and the Gulf of Mexico, is expected to produce northeasterly flow that will keep Eta moving southwestward for the next 24-36 hours. However, the cyclone will gradually slow down during that time as a broad deep-layer trough moving across the central and south-central U.S. weakens the ridge over the Gulf, causing Eta to stall or make a small loop around 36 hours. By 48-60 hours and beyond, the aforementioned trough is forecast to lift out to the northeast, allowing at least some of the Gulf ridge to build back in, slowing down Eta's poleward progress or even possibly trapping the cyclone over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. The global and regional models are in very good agreement on the developing track scenario through about 72 hours, and then diverge significantly thereafter, with the bulk of the guidance taking a much weaker Eta northwestward or northward into strong shear conditions. However, the Navy COAMPS-TC model strengthens Eta to near major hurricane status and takes the cyclone northeastward, while the HMON model also intensifies the cyclone into a major hurricane, but leaves it trapped over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. The latter two scenarios are considered to be outliers due to the abundance of very dry air surrounding Eta and an expected increase in the deep-layer shear to more than 25 kt by 96 and 120 hours. The new official forecast track is to the left or west of the previous advisory track, but not as far west as the consensus models, which take a significantly weaker and more shallow cyclone toward the north-central Gulf coast. Some re-strengthening appears more likely now that Eta has shed a lot of outer convective baggage and has become more compact, and has developed a donut ring of inner-core convection and some modest upper-level outflow in all quadrants. Eta's best opportunity for intensification should come during the next 36 hours when the cyclone will be moving over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico Loop Current and the deep-layer vertical wind shear gradually decreases to less than 10 kt. Although occasional intrusions of very dry air will prevent rapid intensification from occurring, some gradual strengthening seems to be in order given the other favorable environmental conditions and the cyclone's new smaller size. By 48 hours and beyond, increasing vertical wind shear and dry air entrainment should cause steady weakening of the cyclone through end of the forecast period. However, if Eta takes a more northwestward track like some of the NHC model guidance is indicating, then the cyclone will get sheared more and weaken sooner than indicated in the official forecast. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and but is lower than intensity consensus models IVCN and HCCA, which re-strengthen Eta to a 65-70 kt hurricane. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across portions of Cuba, the Bahamas, and southern Florida and spread north into central Florida. Additional flash flooding is possible across inundated urban areas of southeast Florida today. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for Cuba, the Bahamas and the remainder of southern Florida over the next several days. 2. Eta could approach the Florida Gulf Coast later this week as a tropical storm, and possibly bring impacts from rain, wind, and storm surge. Interests in this area should monitor the progress of Eta and updates to the forecast this week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 23.7N 84.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 23.2N 85.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 23.4N 85.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 24.3N 85.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 25.6N 85.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 12/0600Z 26.5N 85.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 12/1800Z 27.2N 85.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 13/1800Z 28.0N 85.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 14/1800Z 28.6N 85.6W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Eta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 38
2020-11-09 21:49:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON NOV 09 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 092049 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 2100 UTC MON NOV 09 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) MARATHON FL 34 1 3( 4) 5( 9) 2(11) 2(13) 1(14) 1(15) KEY WEST FL 34 1 5( 6) 8(14) 3(17) 1(18) 2(20) X(20) NAPLES FL 34 1 3( 4) 6(10) 5(15) 4(19) 2(21) 2(23) FT MYERS FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) VENICE FL 34 1 2( 3) 7(10) 8(18) 6(24) 3(27) 2(29) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) 7(19) 3(22) 1(23) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 9(16) 3(19) 2(21) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 4(12) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 10(16) 5(21) 3(24) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 15(25) 4(29) 3(32) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 5(17) 3(20) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 11(16) 5(21) 1(22) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 5( 9) 2(11) 2(13) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) COZUMEL MX 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 14 23(37) 7(44) 1(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HAVANA 34 2 9(11) 8(19) 1(20) 1(21) 1(22) X(22) ISLE OF PINES 34 1 5( 6) 4(10) 2(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) 2(13) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Summary for Tropical Storm Eta (AT4/AL292020)
2020-11-09 21:49:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ETA MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND STRENGTHEN SOME TONIGHT AND TUESDAY... As of 4:00 PM EST Mon Nov 9 the center of Eta was located near 23.7, -84.8 with movement SW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Advisory Number 38
2020-11-09 21:49:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON NOV 09 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 092049 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 2100 UTC MON NOV 09 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...ARTEMISA...MAYABEQUE...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ETA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 84.8W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 230 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 40SE 30SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 75SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 84.8W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 84.2W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 23.2N 85.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 23.4N 85.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 24.3N 85.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 25.6N 85.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 26.5N 85.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 27.2N 85.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 28.0N 85.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 28.6N 85.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.7N 84.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 10/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Eta Public Advisory Number 38
2020-11-09 21:49:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM EST Mon Nov 09 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 092049 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 400 PM EST Mon Nov 09 2020 ...ETA MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND STRENGTHEN SOME TONIGHT AND TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.7N 84.8W ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM WSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM N OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours. Interests along the Gulf Coast of Florida should monitor the progress of Eta. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located near latitude 23.7 North, longitude 84.8 West. Eta is moving toward the southwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this motion with some reduction in forward speed is expected to continue through tonight. Little overall motion is forecast on Tuesday and a slow northward motion is expected Tuesday night and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will remain over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening will be possible tonight and Tuesday. Gradual weakening is expected to begin on Wednesday and then continue through the end of the week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Saturday morning: The Bahamas: An additional 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 mm), with isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm). Portions of Cuba: an additional 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 25 inches (635 mm). Portions of the central and southern Florida peninsula, including the Keys: an additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm)), with isolated maximum storm totals of 18 inches (450 mm) in South Florida. Flash flooding and river flooding will be possible in Cuba, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Additional flash flooding is possible across inundated urban areas of southeast Florida today. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for the Bahamas and the remainder of southern and eastern Florida over the next several days. WIND: Gusty conditions will continue across the Florida Keys, south and central Florida, and the northwestern Bahamas today. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in Cuba tonight and Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north coast of Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, southern Florida and the Florida Keys during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM EST. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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