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Summary for Tropical Storm Eta (AT4/AL292020)
2020-11-09 12:48:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ETA MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS STILL OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS... As of 7:00 AM EST Mon Nov 9 the center of Eta was located near 25.0, -82.9 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Eta Public Advisory Number 36A
2020-11-09 12:48:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 AM EST Mon Nov 09 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 091148 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 36A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 700 AM EST Mon Nov 09 2020 ...ETA MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS STILL OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS... SUMMARY OF 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.0N 82.9W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM WNW OF DRY TORTUGAS FLORIDA ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM WNW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Bahamas has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for all of the Bahamas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Florida coast from Brevard/Volusia County line to Anna Maria Island * Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including Florida Bay * Lake Okeechobee A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of Eta. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM EST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 82.9 West. Eta is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A westward motion will continue this morning, followed by a west-southwestward motion with some reduction in forward speed this afternoon and tonight. Little overall motion is forecast on Tuesday and a slow northward motion is expected on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will gradually move away from the Florida Keys and south Florida today, and will remain over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight through Wednesday. Data from the reconnaissance aircraft and Doppler radars indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Eta is forecast to become a hurricane when it moves over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km) from the center. A wind gust to 43 mph (69 km/h) was recently reported in Homestead, Florida. The estimated minimum central pressure based on reports from the aircraft is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Saturday morning: Jamaica and The Bahamas: An additional 2 to 4 inches (25 to 75 mm), with isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm). Portions of Cuba: an additional 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 25 inches (635 mm). Portions of the central and southern Florida peninsula, including the Keys: an additional 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm), with isolated maximum storm totals of 18 inches (450 mm) in South Florida. Flash flooding and river flooding will be possible in Cuba, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Life-threatening flash flooding will be possible across inundated urban areas of southeast Florida. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for Jamaica, the Bahamas, and the remainder of southern and eastern Florida over the next several days. Minor river flooding is also possible for central Florida. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Bonita Beach, FL to Golden Beach, FL including Florida Keys...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue across the Florida Keys, south and central Florida, and the northwestern Bahamas today. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in Cuba tonight and Tuesday. TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible through tonight over parts of south Florida and the Keys. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north coast of Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, southern Florida and the Florida Keys during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Discussion Number 36
2020-11-09 10:03:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM EST Mon Nov 09 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 090902 CCA TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 36...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 400 AM EST Mon Nov 09 2020 Corrected a typo in the second paragraph Tropical Storm Eta made landfall in the middle Florida Keys around 11 pm EST with maximum winds of about 55 kt. Since then it has moved across Florida Bay and is now located off the coast of extreme southwestern Florida. The storm has generally changed little in strength overnight with maximum winds estimated to be near 55 kt based on NOAA Hurricane Hunter and Doppler radar data. Bands of heavy rain and tropical-storm-force winds continue over portions of the Florida Keys, and south and central Florida. Eta is now moving west-northwestward at 12 kt. The upper-level trough that Eta is entangled with and a mid-level high pressure system off the southeast U.S. coast should steer the storm westward to west-southwestward away from south Florida and the Keys through tonight. The steering currents surrounding Eta are expected to collapse on Tuesday, and most of the guidance responds by showing Eta meandering over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico in the 24-48 hour time period. After that time, the models diverge significantly with the ECMWF showing a turn to the north or northeast in response to an upper trough that is expected to move into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. However, the latest runs of GFS and UKMET models show the trough lifting out and provided little steering for Eta, which causes a continued slow and erratic motion over the Gulf in those models. The new track forecast shows a slower northward to northeastward motion compared to the previous one from days 3-5 as a compromise of the latest models and continuity. Due to the poor model agreement beyond a couple of days, the track forecast at the longer range is of low confidence, and large changes are possible if the models converge toward the GFS/UKMET solutions. The storm will have an opportunity to strengthen a little during the next couple of days and it could become a hurricane as it moves over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico Loop current and remains in light-to-moderate wind shear conditions. However, there will be a fair amount of dry air surrounding Eta, and that should limit the amount of intensification. Beyond a couple of days, depending on exactly where Eta is, the models show an increase in westerly shear, which in combination with the dry air should cause a slow decay. The NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one, and is also of low confidence since its unclear where Eta will be located later in the week. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across portions of Cuba, Jamaica, the Bahamas, and southern Florida and spread north into central Florida. Life-threatening flash flooding will be possible across inundated urban areas of southeast Florida today. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for Cuba, Jamaica, the Bahamas and the remainder of southern Florida, along with potential minor river flooding in central Florida. 2. Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of the Florida Keys, and south and central Florida today. 3. Water levels will gradually recede along portions of the southern coast of the Florida peninsula and Keys. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 4. Eta could approach the Florida Gulf Coast later this week as a tropical storm, and possibly bring impacts from rain, wind, and storm surge. Interests in this area should monitor the progress of Eta and updates to the forecast this week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 25.2N 82.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 24.6N 83.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 23.8N 84.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 23.9N 85.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 24.8N 85.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 11/1800Z 26.0N 85.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 12/0600Z 26.7N 84.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 13/0600Z 27.8N 84.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 14/0600Z 29.4N 83.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Eta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 36
2020-11-09 09:39:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON NOV 09 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 090838 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 0900 UTC MON NOV 09 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 9(19) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 7(14) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 9(20) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 9(16) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 7( 8) 7(15) 9(24) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) 7(18) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) THE VILLAGES 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 9(11) 6(17) 8(25) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ORLANDO FL 34 2 X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 7(10) 6(16) 8(24) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 11 X(11) 1(12) 1(13) 8(21) 5(26) 5(31) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PATRICK AFB 34 11 X(11) 1(12) 1(13) 8(21) 5(26) 6(32) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) FT PIERCE FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) W PALM BEACH 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FT LAUDERDALE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MIAMI FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MARATHON FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MARATHON FL 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) KEY WEST FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) KEY WEST FL 50 77 X(77) X(77) X(77) 1(78) X(78) X(78) NAPLES FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NAPLES FL 50 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) FT MYERS FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) VENICE FL 34 84 X(84) 1(85) 1(86) 3(89) 1(90) 1(91) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 4(12) 1(13) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) TAMPA FL 34 22 2(24) 3(27) 5(32) 16(48) 7(55) 5(60) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) 2(12) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 6 1( 7) 1( 8) 4(12) 18(30) 9(39) 8(47) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 4(12) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) 8(19) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 7(14) 7(21) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) APALACHICOLA 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 15(19) 9(28) 7(35) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) GFMX 290N 850W 34 5 2( 7) 1( 8) 5(13) 19(32) 9(41) 5(46) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) 3(14) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 8(21) 5(26) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 4(11) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) GFMX 290N 870W 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 10(15) 7(22) 4(26) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 5( 9) 3(12) 2(14) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) GRAND BAHAMA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 2 17(19) 16(35) 5(40) 3(43) X(43) 1(44) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HAVANA 34 14 15(29) 13(42) 5(47) 3(50) 1(51) X(51) HAVANA 50 1 X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) ISLE OF PINES 34 2 4( 6) 7(13) 4(17) 2(19) 1(20) X(20) CIENFUEGOS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 3(13) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm Eta Public Advisory Number 36
2020-11-09 09:38:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM EST Mon Nov 09 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 090838 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 400 AM EST Mon Nov 09 2020 ...ETA JUST OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA... ...STRONG WINDS, HEAVY RAINS, AND DANGEROUS STORM SURGE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS... SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.2N 82.0W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM NNW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM S OF NAPLES FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Warning and Storm Surge Watch have been discontinued. The Hurricane Warning for the Florida Keys and Florida Bay have been replaced with a Tropical Storm Warning. The Hurricane Watch for south Florida has been discontinued. The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning for the Florida west coast from Englewood to Anna Maria Island. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence * Florida coast from Brevard/Volusia County line to Anna Maria Island * Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including Florida Bay * Lake Okeechobee A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of Eta. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM EST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located near latitude 25.2 North, longitude 82.0 West. Eta is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A west to west- southwest motion with some reduction in forward speed is expected later today and tonight. Little overall motion is expected on Tuesday and a slow northward motion is forecast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will gradually pull away from the Florida Keys and south Florida today and be over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight through Wednesday. Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft and National Weather Service Doppler radar indicate that the maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Eta is forecast to become a hurricane when it moves over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Saturday morning: Jamaica and The Bahamas: An additional 2 to 4 inches (25 to 75 mm), with isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm). Portions of Cuba: an additional 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 25 inches (635 mm). Portions of the central and southern Florida peninsula, including the Keys: an additional 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm), with isolated maximum storm totals of 18 inches (450 mm) in South Florida. Flash flooding and river flooding will be possible in Cuba, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Life-threatening flash flooding will be possible across inundated urban areas of southeast Florida. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for Jamaica, the Bahamas, and the remainder of southern and eastern Florida over the next several days. Minor river flooding is also possible for central Florida. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Bonita Beach, FL to Card Sound Bridge including Florida Keys... 2-3 ft Card Sound Bridge to Golden Beach... 1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue across the Florida Keys, south and central Florida, and the northwestern Bahamas today. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in Cuba tonight and Tuesday. TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible through tonight over parts of south Florida and the Keys. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north coast of Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, southern Florida and the Florida Keys during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM EST. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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