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Tropical Storm Eta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 37
2020-11-09 15:46:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON NOV 09 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 091446 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 1500 UTC MON NOV 09 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 4(11) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 4(11) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 4( 9) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 5(14) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 5(10) 4(14) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 3(11) 2(13) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 4(12) 2(14) FT PIERCE FL 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) 2(12) W PALM BEACH 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) 1(11) FT LAUDERDALE 34 1 X( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) 1(11) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) MARATHON FL 34 1 3( 4) 5( 9) 2(11) 3(14) 2(16) X(16) KEY WEST FL 34 4 4( 8) 8(16) 3(19) 3(22) 1(23) X(23) NAPLES FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FT MYERS FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) VENICE FL 34 3 2( 5) 7(12) 7(19) 10(29) 4(33) 2(35) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) TAMPA FL 34 1 1( 2) 4( 6) 6(12) 11(23) 7(30) 2(32) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 12(19) 6(25) 4(29) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 4(15) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) 3(15) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 12(18) 7(25) 4(29) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) 16(28) 7(35) 3(38) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 8(13) 7(20) 2(22) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 9(16) 5(21) 2(23) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) 1(12) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 2 14(16) 9(25) 2(27) 2(29) X(29) X(29) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HAVANA 34 2 4( 6) 9(15) 2(17) 2(19) 1(20) X(20) ISLE OF PINES 34 1 2( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) 2(12) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Summary for Tropical Storm Eta (AT4/AL292020)
2020-11-09 15:46:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ETA MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS STILL OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS... As of 10:00 AM EST Mon Nov 9 the center of Eta was located near 24.6, -83.4 with movement SW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Eta Public Advisory Number 37
2020-11-09 15:46:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM EST Mon Nov 09 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 091445 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 1000 AM EST Mon Nov 09 2020 ...ETA MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS STILL OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.6N 83.4W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM WSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM NNE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 235 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for all of the Florida peninsula and the Florida Keys, excluding the Dry Tortugas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dry Tortugas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 6 to 12 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests along the Gulf Coast of Florida should monitor the progress of Eta. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 83.4 West. Eta is moving toward the southwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion with some reduction in forward speed is expected to continue through tonight. Little overall motion is forecast on Tuesday and a slow northward motion is expected on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will continue to move away from the Florida Keys and south Florida today, and will remain over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight through Wednesday. Data from the aircraft and Doppler radars indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today and tonight. Some slight strengthening is forecast on Tuesday into Wednesday, followed by gradual weakening thereafter. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on reports from the aircraft is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Saturday morning: The Bahamas: An additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm), with isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm). Portions of Cuba: an additional 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 25 inches (635 mm). Portions of the central and southern Florida peninsula, including the Keys: an additional 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm)), with isolated maximum storm totals of 18 inches (450 mm) in South Florida. Flash flooding and river flooding will be possible in Cuba, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Life-threatening flash flooding will be possible across saturated urban areas of southeast Florida. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for the Bahamas and the remainder of southern and eastern Florida over the next several days. Minor river flooding is also possible for central Florida. WIND: Gusty conditions will continue across the Florida Keys, south and central Florida, and the northwestern Bahamas today. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in Cuba tonight and Tuesday. TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible today over parts of south Florida and the Keys. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north coast of Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, southern Florida and the Florida Keys during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM EST. Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Advisory Number 37
2020-11-09 15:46:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON NOV 09 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 091445 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 1500 UTC MON NOV 09 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...EXCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DRY TORTUGAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...ARTEMISA...MAYABEQUE...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ETA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 83.4W AT 09/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 235 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......130NE 40SE 30SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 75SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 83.4W AT 09/1500Z AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 82.9W FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 23.9N 84.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 23.6N 85.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 24.5N 85.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 25.6N 85.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 26.5N 85.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 27.2N 85.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 28.4N 84.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 29.6N 83.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 83.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 09/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Eta Graphics
2020-11-09 12:48:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 09 Nov 2020 11:48:47 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 09 Nov 2020 09:24:58 GMT
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