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Tropical Storm Eta Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics
2020-11-09 05:06:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Mon, 09 Nov 2020 04:06:29 GMT
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Tropical Storm Eta Graphics
2020-11-09 03:58:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 09 Nov 2020 02:58:53 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 09 Nov 2020 03:24:55 GMT
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Tropical Storm Eta Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2020-11-09 03:55:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Mon, 09 Nov 2020 02:55:52 GMT
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Tropical Storm Eta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 35
2020-11-09 03:54:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON NOV 09 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 090254 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 0300 UTC MON NOV 09 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 10(13) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 10(13) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 12(24) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 11(19) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) 13(27) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 12(22) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 6( 7) 10(17) 12(29) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) DAYTONA BEACH 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) 12(24) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) THE VILLAGES 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 8(12) 10(22) 11(33) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) ORLANDO FL 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) 6(13) 7(20) 11(31) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) COCOA BEACH FL 34 22 2(24) 1(25) X(25) 7(32) 5(37) 6(43) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) PATRICK AFB 34 22 2(24) 1(25) X(25) 7(32) 5(37) 6(43) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) FT PIERCE FL 34 57 X(57) 1(58) X(58) 4(62) 2(64) 2(66) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) W PALM BEACH 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FT LAUDERDALE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MIAMI FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MARATHON FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MARATHON FL 50 93 X(93) X(93) X(93) 1(94) X(94) X(94) MARATHON FL 64 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KEY WEST FL 34 97 1(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) 1(99) X(99) KEY WEST FL 50 79 1(80) X(80) X(80) 1(81) X(81) X(81) KEY WEST FL 64 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NAPLES FL 34 97 X(97) 1(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) NAPLES FL 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FT MYERS FL 34 95 1(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) FT MYERS FL 50 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) VENICE FL 34 64 2(66) 1(67) 2(69) 7(76) 2(78) 2(80) VENICE FL 50 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 7( 8) 4(12) 2(14) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) TAMPA FL 34 31 2(33) 2(35) 3(38) 14(52) 7(59) 6(65) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) 4(14) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) CEDAR KEY FL 34 8 2(10) 1(11) 2(13) 15(28) 12(40) 7(47) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 5(14) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 7(19) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) 8(22) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) APALACHICOLA 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 13(16) 10(26) 5(31) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 4 3( 7) 1( 8) 3(11) 17(28) 11(39) 5(44) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 4(14) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 8(18) 5(23) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 8(12) 6(18) 3(21) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) COZUMEL MX 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 4(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) GRAND BAHAMA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ANDROS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 1 7( 8) 23(31) 18(49) 2(51) 1(52) X(52) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) 1(11) 1(12) X(12) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) HAVANA 34 11 13(24) 9(33) 10(43) 4(47) X(47) X(47) HAVANA 50 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLE OF PINES 34 2 2( 4) 6(10) 7(17) 4(21) 1(22) X(22) CIENFUEGOS 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 2(11) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Discussion Number 35
2020-11-09 03:54:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM EST Sun Nov 08 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 090254 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 1000 PM EST Sun Nov 08 2020 Although deep convection has waned near the center of Eta since this afternoon, radar imagery continues to show a ring of low-topped convection around the center, with some deep convection returning over the northeastern portion of the circulation. Doppler radar velocities of 64-68 kt around 5000 ft, and recent NOAA reconnaissance aircraft observations support maintaining the 55 kt initial intensity. The aircraft reported a minimum pressure of around 993 mb. Since Eta has a fairly large radius of maximum winds and a dry slot that has wrapped into the inner core, it appears that any short-term strengthening should be slow to occur. As a result, the new NHC intensity forecast calls for a little less strengthening until Eta moves into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico in about 24 hours. Regardless of whether Eta becomes a hurricane near the Florida Keys, there is little difference in impacts between a 55-to-60-kt tropical storm and a 65-kt hurricane. After 24 hours, Eta is forecast to move over warmer sea surface temperatures in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and the vertical shear is forecast to decrease. This is expected to allow for some strengthening and Eta is forecast re-gain hurricane strengthen by Tuesday. Gradual weakening is predicted between 72-120 hours due to increasing southwesterly shear and the entrainment of dry mid-level air. The updated NHC intensity forecast is near the SHIPS/LGEM models during the first couple of days, and in good agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus model thereafter. Eta has turned northwestward this evening around the north side of a cut-off low located just south of western Cuba. The tropical cyclone should turn west-northwestward to westward overnight, and a southwestward motion is expected on Tuesday as Eta pivots around the upper-low. In 36-48 h, Eta is expected to slow down and possibly stall over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico as the steering currents weakening. In about 3 days, Eta should begin moving northward between a mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic and a broad trough over the central United States. The models that maintain Eta has a deeper system show a faster northeastward motion late in the period, whereas models that weaken Eta slow its northward progression by day 5. The NHC track forecast lies near the model consensus at 96 and 120 h, and is similar to the previous advisory. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across portions of Cuba, Jamaica, the Bahamas, and southern Florida and spread north into central Florida. Life-threatening flash flooding is possible across the urban areas of southeast Florida. Significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding is possible in Cuba, and significant flash and urban flooding are possible for Jamaica, the Bahamas and the remainder of southern Florida, along with potential minor river flooding in central Florida. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected tonight and early Monday across portions of the Florida Keys, and are possible across portions of southern Florida. Tropical storm conditions will extend well away from Eta's center across the southern and central portions of the Florida peninsula. 3. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge in portions of the Florida Keys. Life-threatening storm surge is possible along portions of the southern coast of the Florida peninsula. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 4. Eta is forecast to approach the Florida Gulf Coast later this week as a tropical storm, and could bring impacts from rain, wind, and storm surge. Interests in this area should monitor the progress of Eta and updates to the forecast this week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 24.6N 80.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 24.9N 82.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 24.2N 84.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 23.6N 85.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 24.2N 85.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 11/1200Z 25.5N 84.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 12/0000Z 26.6N 84.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 13/0000Z 28.2N 83.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 14/0000Z 30.0N 82.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Brown
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