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Summary for Tropical Storm Epsilon (AT2/AL272020)
2020-10-25 21:36:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LARGE EPSILON IS NEARLY EXTRATROPICAL AS IT CONTINUES RACING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD... ...HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS POSSIBLE ALONG ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH MONDAY... As of 9:00 PM GMT Sun Oct 25 the center of Epsilon was located near 46.2, -44.3 with movement ENE at 46 mph. The minimum central pressure was 964 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Epsilon Forecast Discussion Number 28
2020-10-25 21:36:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 PM GMT Sun Oct 25 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 252036 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Epsilon Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 900 PM GMT Sun Oct 25 2020 Epsilon is nearly extratropical, with late morning scatterometer data showing that the circulation has become stretched out as the cyclone interacts with a high-latitude low pressure system and an associated mid- upper-level trough to its north. The main reason that the cyclone is still classifiable as a tropical cyclone is persistent deep convection very near the center of circulation. Based on the scatterometer data showing an area of peak winds of 56 kt, the initial intensity is being lowered to 60 kt. What remains of the trapped tropical airmass near the center of the cyclone supporting the deep convection should mix out over the next few hours, as Epsilon moves over cold waters of about 15 degrees C and continues to wrap cooler and stable air into its circulation. The post-tropical cyclone will remain large and powerful until it is absorbed by another large extratropical low over the north Atlantic in about 24-36 h. Epsilon is racing east-northeastward at around 40 kt, embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies. A fast east-northeastward or northeastward motion is expected to continue until the system gets absorbed by the aforementioned high-latitude low pressure system. The latest NHC forecast track is essentially an update of the previous one and remains in the middle of the tightly clustered consensus guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 46.2N 44.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 49.4N 35.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 26/1800Z 54.4N 26.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 27/0600Z...ABSORBED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Zeta Graphics
2020-10-25 19:06:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 25 Oct 2020 18:06:31 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 25 Oct 2020 15:32:54 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Zeta (AT3/AL282020)
2020-10-25 18:54:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ZETA EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TOMORROW... As of 2:00 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 the center of Zeta was located near 18.0, -84.0 with movement Nearly stationary. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Zeta Public Advisory Number 4A
2020-10-25 18:54:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 251754 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Zeta Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020 200 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020 ...ZETA EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TOMORROW... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 84.0W ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NEARLY STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Tulum to Rio Lagartos Mexico * Cozumel A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Pinar del Rio Cuba * Tulum to Rio Lagartos Mexico * Cozumel A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 84.0 West. Zeta is meandering or nearly stationary, but a generally northwestward motion is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will pass south of western Cuba early Monday and move near or over the northern Yucatan Peninsula or the Yucatan Channel late Monday, move into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, and reach the central Gulf of Mexico by late Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Zeta could become a hurricane by the time it moves near or over the Yucatan Peninsula late Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 12 inches are possible through Wednesday along and east-northeast of Zetas track from Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, central to western Cuba, and the northeast Yucatan peninsula of Mexico. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches with local amounts of 5 inches are possible across southern Florida and the Keys over the next 2 days, with isolated storm totals of 8 inches. By Wednesday, heavy rainfall associated with Zeta will begin to affect the central Gulf Coast region, which may lead to flash flooding in urban areas. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area in the Yucatan Peninsula by late Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in the Yucatan peninsula late Monday, and could occur in the warning area in Western Cuba on Monday. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1-3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in the Hurricane Watch area near and to the north of where the center makes landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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