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Tropical Storm Zeta Graphics
2020-10-27 09:59:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 27 Oct 2020 08:59:28 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 27 Oct 2020 09:25:25 GMT
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Tropical Storm Zeta Forecast Advisory Number 11
2020-10-27 09:54:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 27 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 270853 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282020 0900 UTC TUE OCT 27 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY... LOUISIANA...TO NAVARRE...FLORIDA...INCLUDING LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...VERMILION BAY...PENSACOLA BAY...AND MOBILE BAY. A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM MORGAN CITY...LOUISIANA... TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER...INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN... LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE... FLORIDA. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM PUNTA ALLEN TO PROGRESO... INCLUDING COZUMEL. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO NAVARRE FLORIDA * LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...VERMILION BAY...PENSACOLA BAY...AND MOBILE BAY A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA ALLEN TO PROGRESO MEXICO * COZUMEL * MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE... DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 88.4W AT 27/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 60SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 88.4W AT 27/0900Z AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 87.9W FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 22.3N 90.1W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 24.4N 91.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 27.5N 91.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 120SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 31.7N 88.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 110SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 36.5N 81.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 40.3N 70.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 210SE 180SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N 88.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 27/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Zeta Graphics
2020-10-26 19:01:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 26 Oct 2020 18:01:31 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 26 Oct 2020 15:25:25 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Zeta (AT3/AL282020)
2020-10-26 18:56:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ZETA HEADED FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... As of 1:00 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 the center of Zeta was located near 19.3, -85.6 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 986 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Zeta Public Advisory Number 8A
2020-10-26 18:56:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 261756 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Zeta Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020 100 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020 ...ZETA HEADED FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.3N 85.6W ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Tulum to Dzilam Mexico * Cozumel A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Pinar del Rio Cuba * South of Tulum to Punta Allen * West of Dzilam to Progreso A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Watches will likely be required for a portion of the northern Gulf Coast later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 19.3 North, longitude 85.6 West. Zeta is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A northwestward motion with some increase in forward speed is expected over the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the north Tuesday night. A faster northward to north-northeastward motion is forecast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will move near or over the northern Yucatan Peninsula later today or tonight, move over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, and approach the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Zeta is expected to become a hurricane later today. Some weakening is likely while Zeta moves over the Yucatan Peninsula tonight and early Tuesday. Zeta is forecast to strengthen again while it moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico later on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml. RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 12 inches are possible through Tuesday along and east-northeast of Zeta's track across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, the Cayman Islands, and central to western Cuba. Heavy rains will begin to impact the central Gulf Coast Tuesday night, spreading inland across eastern Mississippi, Alabama, northern Georgia during Wednesday, through the southern Appalachians Wednesday night and into the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches are expected across these areas, resulting in flash, urban, small stream, and minor river flooding. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula by late today. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area in Mexico by late today. Tropical storm conditions could occur in the warning area in western Cuba beginning later today. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in the Hurricane Warning area near and to the north of where the center makes landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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