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Tropical Storm Epsilon Forecast Discussion Number 6
2020-10-20 17:00:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Oct 20 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 201500 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Epsilon Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 1100 AM AST Tue Oct 20 2020 A curved band of deep convection persists near and over the center of Epsilon this morning. The cyclone is experiencing southwesterly vertical wind shear as it interacts with an upper-level trough to its southwest, and the storm still has a hybrid-like appearance in satellite imagery with a band of convection well to the east and northeast of the center. Water vapor imagery indicates that some dry mid-level air is impinging on the south and west sides of the circulation. A very recent ASCAT-A overpass shows several 45-kt vectors in the southeast quadrant, and it is certainly possible that the intensity could be near 50 kt based on the known undersampling issues. The initial intensity is raised to 45 kt with this advisory, which is consistent with a T3.0 Dvorak classification from SAB. Epsilon remains a large cyclone with tropical-storm-force winds extending outward more than 250 n mi in the northern semicircle. Although Epsilon was drifting northeastward earlier this morning, recent visible satellite imagery suggest Epsilon is beginning to turn north-northwestward or northwestward with a faster forward speed as a mid-level ridge builds to its north and east. This general motion is expected to continue for the next several days. Beyond 72 h, a deep-layer trough moving eastward into the western Atlantic should cause Epsilon to turn northward and then accelerate northeastward near the end of the forecast period. The track guidance remains in good agreement, and only minor adjustments were made to the previous track in line with the consensus aids (excluding the outlying HWRF solution at this time). Epsilon is still forecast to make its closest approach to Bermuda on Friday. The intensity forecast remains tricky since moderate south-southwesterly shear is expected to persist for another 12-18 h as Epsilon continues to interact with a nearby upper-level trough. By the time the deep-layer shear abates, Epsilon will be gaining latitude and moving over waters with lower oceanic heat content. Additionally, intrusions of environmental dry air could inhibit or at least slow the development process. Regardless, the global models show fairly significant deepening of the cyclone in the coming days, and the intensity guidance consensus still supports at least gradual strengthening. Therefore, little change was made to the official NHC intensity forecast, which still shows Epsilon becoming a hurricane late this week. Key Message: 1. Epsilon is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength when it makes its closest approach to Bermuda late this week. While it is too soon to determine the exact details of Epsilon's track and intensity near the island, there is a risk of direct impacts from wind, rainfall, and storm surge on Bermuda. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the island. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 26.5N 55.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 27.4N 56.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 28.2N 58.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 28.9N 59.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 30.0N 60.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 23/0000Z 31.4N 60.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 23/1200Z 32.4N 61.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 24/1200Z 34.5N 61.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 25/1200Z 39.5N 55.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Brown
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Summary for Tropical Storm Epsilon (AT2/AL272020)
2020-10-20 16:51:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...EPSILON TURNS NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR BERMUDA... As of 11:00 AM AST Tue Oct 20 the center of Epsilon was located near 26.5, -55.0 with movement NNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Epsilon Public Advisory Number 6
2020-10-20 16:51:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Oct 20 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 201451 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Epsilon Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 1100 AM AST Tue Oct 20 2020 ...EPSILON TURNS NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.5N 55.0W ABOUT 710 MI...1145 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Bermuda. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Epsilon was located near latitude 26.5 North, longitude 55.0 West. Epsilon is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A northwestward motion with a slightly faster forward speed is forecast over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Epsilon is forecast to move closer to Bermuda on Thursday and make its closest approach to the island on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and Epsilon is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength by Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 300 miles (480 km), primarily to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Thursday. SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon are expected to affect Bermuda for the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Brown
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Tropical Storm Epsilon Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2020-10-20 16:51:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 20 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 201451 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM EPSILON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020 1500 UTC TUE OCT 20 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 15(19) 14(33) 1(34) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) $$ FORECASTER REINHART
Tropical Storm Epsilon Forecast Advisory Number 6
2020-10-20 16:51:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 20 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 201451 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020 1500 UTC TUE OCT 20 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BERMUDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 55.0W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......260NE 60SE 50SW 240NW. 12 FT SEAS..540NE 120SE 270SW 480NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 55.0W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 54.7W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 27.4N 56.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...270NE 90SE 60SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 28.2N 58.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...270NE 100SE 60SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 28.9N 59.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 20SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...240NE 120SE 70SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 30.0N 60.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 60NW. 34 KT...210NE 130SE 80SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 31.4N 60.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 150SE 90SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 32.4N 61.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 140SE 100SW 180NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 34.5N 61.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 39.5N 55.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.5N 55.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 20/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/BROWN
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