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Tropical Storm Zeta Public Advisory Number 6
2020-10-26 03:44:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 260244 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Zeta Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020 1100 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020 ...ZETA GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND STORM SURGE TO PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY LATE MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.1N 83.8W ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Tulum to Rio Lagartos Mexico * Cozumel A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Pinar del Rio Cuba A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 83.8 West. Zeta is drifting toward the north-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h) but a faster northwestward motion is expected over the next couple of days, followed by a turn to the north. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will move near or over the northern Yucatan Peninsula or the Yucatan Channel late Monday, move over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, and approach the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Zeta is expected to become a hurricane before it moves near or over the Yucatan Peninsula late Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml. RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 12 inches are possible through Wednesday along and east-northeast of Zetas track from Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, central to western Cuba, and the northeast Yucatan peninsula of Mexico. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with local amounts of 4 inches possible across Southern Florida and the Keys through Tuesday, with isolated storm total accumulations of 8 inches. Between Wednesday and Friday, storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with local 6 inch amounts, is expected across sections of the U.S. Gulf Coast and the southern U.S. near and in advance of Zeta. Heavy rainfall will spread north into the Tennessee Valley, Southern Appalachians, and portions of the Mid-Atlantic States near and in advance of Zeta late in the week. The expected rainfall could lead to flash flooding and minor river flooding. By Wednesday, heavy rainfall associated with Zeta will begin to affect the central Gulf Coast region, which may lead to flash flooding in urban areas. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula by late Monday. Tropical storm conditions could occur in the warning area in western Cuba on Monday. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1-3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in the Hurricane Warning area near and to the north of where the center makes landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Zeta Forecast Advisory Number 6
2020-10-26 03:43:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 26 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 260243 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282020 0300 UTC MON OCT 26 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TULUM TO RIO LAGARTOS MEXICO * COZUMEL A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PINAR DEL RIO CUBA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 83.8W AT 26/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 83.8W AT 26/0300Z AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 83.6W FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.9N 84.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 90SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 20.2N 86.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 21.8N 88.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 24.0N 90.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 27.1N 91.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 110SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 31.1N 89.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 100SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 38.7N 78.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 83.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 26/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Zeta Graphics
2020-10-26 00:33:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 25 Oct 2020 23:33:31 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 25 Oct 2020 20:58:40 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Zeta (AT3/AL282020)
2020-10-26 00:33:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ZETA EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND STORM SURGE TO PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY LATE MONDAY... As of 8:00 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 the center of Zeta was located near 18.0, -83.6 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Zeta Public Advisory Number 5A
2020-10-26 00:33:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 252333 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Zeta Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020 800 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020 ...ZETA EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND STORM SURGE TO PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY LATE MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 83.6W ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO ABOUT 280 MI...455 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Tulum to Rio Lagartos Mexico * Cozumel A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Pinar del Rio Cuba A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 83.6 West. Zeta has been meandering recently, but a northwestward motion is expected over the next couple of days, followed by a turn to the north. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will move near or over the northern Yucatan Peninsula or the Yucatan Channel late Monday, move over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, and approach the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Zeta is expected to become a hurricane before it moves near or over the Yucatan Peninsula late Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure based on data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml. RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 12 inches are possible through Wednesday along and east-northeast of Zetas track from Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, central to western Cuba, and the northeast Yucatan peninsula of Mexico. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches with local amounts of 5 inches possible across southern Florida and the Keys over the next 2 days, with isolated storm totals of 8 inches. By Wednesday, heavy rainfall associated with Zeta will begin to affect the central Gulf Coast region, which may lead to flash flooding in urban areas. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula by late Monday. Tropical storm conditions could occur in the warning area in western Cuba on Monday. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1-3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in the Hurricane Warning area near and to the north of where the center makes landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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