je.st
news
Tag: tropical storm
Tropical Storm Marie Graphics
2020-09-30 10:38:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 30 Sep 2020 08:38:46 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 30 Sep 2020 09:25:20 GMT
Tags: graphics
marie
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm Marie Forecast Discussion Number 5
2020-09-30 10:37:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Sep 30 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 300837 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 300 AM MDT Wed Sep 30 2020 Geostationary satellite imagery shows that Marie continues to become better organized with a curved band of convection over the western semicircle and a small central dense overcast feature. An ASCAT-B overpass from around 0515 UTC was very helpful in pinpointing the center, and it also revealed that Marie's tropical-storm-force wind field is quite small. Subjective satellite intensity estimates of T3.0 and the scatterometer data yielded an intensity of 45 kt at 0600 UTC, but given the continued improvement in organization, the advisory intensity has been set at 50 kt. Although Marie's outflow is somewhat restricted over the northeastern portion of the storm due to some northeasterly shear, it has been expanding over the past few hours indicating that the shear is decreasing as anticipated. Marie is forecast to remain over warm waters and in a low shear environment during the next couple of days. These very conducive conditions favor strengthening, and the NHC intensity forecast calls for steady to rapid intensification over the next 48 hours. The official forecast is in good agreement with the SHIPS, LGEM, and HFIP corrected consensus models which all predict periods of rapid strengthening over the next 48 to 60 hours. The updated NHC wind speed forecast shows a faster rate of strengthening and a slightly higher peak intensity than in the previous advisory. After 72 hours, cooler waters and a more stable environment should result in steady to rapid weakening. Maria is moving westward at about 14 kt, a little faster than before. There has been no change to the track forecast philosophy as Marie is expected to move westward to west-northwestward during the next few days while it remains to the south of a deep-layer ridge. After that time, a slower northwestward motion is predicted when Marie approaches a weakness in the ridge. The latest runs of the dynamical models have trended toward a more westward track during the first 60 hours or so, and the official forecast has been adjusted accordingly. Thereafter, the NHC track is fairly similar to the previous advisory, and it again lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. Marie's 12-ft sea radii remain larger than would be expected for a small tropical storm due to a large fetch of southerly swell originating from the Southern Hemisphere. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 14.1N 112.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 14.4N 114.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 14.5N 117.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 01/1800Z 14.9N 120.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 02/0600Z 15.7N 123.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 60H 02/1800Z 16.8N 125.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 03/0600Z 18.0N 127.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 04/0600Z 20.0N 130.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 05/0600Z 21.5N 133.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
Tags: number
discussion
marie
storm
Tropical Storm Marie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2020-09-30 10:37:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 30 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 300836 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 0900 UTC WED SEP 30 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 115W 34 43 16(59) 1(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) 15N 115W 50 12 10(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) 15N 115W 64 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 120W 34 X 3( 3) 88(91) 2(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) 68(68) 6(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) 43(43) 6(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 30(32) 32(64) 1(65) X(65) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 25(31) X(31) X(31) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) X(17) X(17) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 4(25) 1(26) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) 1(13) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 48(59) 8(67) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 25(27) 6(33) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 3(16) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Summary for Tropical Storm Marie (EP3/EP182020)
2020-09-30 10:37:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MARIE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT... As of 3:00 AM MDT Wed Sep 30 the center of Marie was located near 14.1, -112.5 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
Tags: summary
marie
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm Marie Public Advisory Number 5
2020-09-30 10:37:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Sep 30 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 300836 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Marie Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 300 AM MDT Wed Sep 30 2020 ...MARIE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.1N 112.5W ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marie was located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 112.5 West. Marie is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion is expected through Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is likely, and Marie is expected to become a hurricane by tonight. The storm is forecast to become a major hurricane within a couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
Tags: number
public
marie
storm
Sites : [605] [606] [607] [608] [609] [610] [611] [612] [613] [614] [615] [616] [617] [618] [619] [620] [621] [622] [623] [624] next »