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Tropical Storm Gamma Public Advisory Number 3A
2020-10-03 07:59:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Sat Oct 03 2020 536 WTNT35 KNHC 030559 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gamma Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020 100 AM CDT Sat Oct 03 2020 ...GAMMA STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... ...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREAT... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 86.6W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...70 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Cabo Catoche Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South of Punta Herrero to Puerto Costa Maya Mexico * West of Cabo Catoche to Dzilam Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gamma was located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 86.6 West. Gamma is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slower northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days, followed by a turn to the west or west-southwest. On the forecast track, the center of Gamma should be near the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula later today. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (70 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected before Gamma moves inland over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula later today. After landfall, slight weakening or little change in strength is expected. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 996 mb (29.41 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Gamma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. RAINFALL: Gamma is expected to produce rainfall of 4 to 8 inches across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and far western Cuba, with maximum rainfall amounts as high as 10 to 15 inches possible across the northeastern portion of the Mexican state of Quintana Roo. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods. A separate area of significant rain is expected to develop well away from the center in the Mexican states of Campeche, Tabasco, and northern Chiapas with rainfall of 8 to 12 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 5 inches is expected in the Bay Islands of Honduras and over the Cayman Islands. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area by later this morning, and are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area later today and on Sunday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Gamma Graphics
2020-10-03 04:34:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 03 Oct 2020 02:34:31 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 03 Oct 2020 03:25:23 GMT
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Tropical Storm Gamma Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2020-10-03 04:32:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 03 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 030232 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM GAMMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL252020 0300 UTC SAT OCT 03 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GAMMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) MERIDA MX 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 5(11) 2(13) 2(15) COZUMEL MX 34 56 20(76) 1(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) 1(78) COZUMEL MX 50 3 9(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) 1(14) X(14) COZUMEL MX 64 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BELIZE CITY 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Summary for Tropical Storm Gamma (AT5/AL252020)
2020-10-03 04:31:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GAMMA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE LANDFALL IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TOMORROW... ...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREAT... As of 10:00 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 the center of Gamma was located near 19.1, -86.1 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Gamma Public Advisory Number 3
2020-10-03 04:31:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 02 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 030231 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gamma Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020 1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 02 2020 ...GAMMA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE LANDFALL IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TOMORROW... ...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREAT... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 86.1W ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Cabo Catoche Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South of Punta Herrero to Puerto Costa Maya Mexico * West of Cabo Catoche to Dzilam Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gamma was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 86.1 West. Gamma is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slower northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days, followed by a turn to the west or west-southwest. On the forecast track, the center of Gamma should be near the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected before Gamma moves inland over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday. After landfall, slight weakening or little change in strength is expected. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Gamma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. RAINFALL: Gamma is expected to produce rainfall of 4 to 8 inches across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and far western Cuba, with maximum rainfall amounts as high as 10 to 15 inches possible across the northeastern portion of the Mexican state of Quintana Roo. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods. A separate area of significant rain is expected to develop well away from the center in the Mexican states of Campeche, Tabasco, and northern Chiapas with rainfall of 8 to 12 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 5 inches is expected in the Bay Islands of Honduras and over the Cayman Islands. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area by Saturday morning, and are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area on Saturday and Sunday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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