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Tropical Storm Marie Forecast Discussion Number 6
2020-09-30 16:43:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Sep 30 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 301443 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 900 AM MDT Wed Sep 30 2020 Marie's satellite presentation has been gradually improving. The center is embedded beneath a central dense overcast feature, and the convective band within the western semicircle has become a little more pronounced and continuous. In addition, a mid-level eye has begun to form, as observed in a 1200 UTC SSMIS microwave pass. Dvorak intensity estimates range from 45-55 kt from TAFB and SAB, and the most recent SATCON estimate was 53 kt (at around 0900 UTC). Based on these numbers and the continued improvement of Marie's structure, the initial intensity is set at 55 kt. The stage appears set for Marie to rapidly intensify during the next couple of days. Water vapor imagery indicates that the easterly shear over the cyclone has continued to decrease and should be generally low for the next 3 days, and upper-level divergence will also be in place during that period to help ventilate the storm. The thermodynamics are also favorable for fast strengthening, highlighted by sea surface temperatures of 28-29 degrees Celsius and plenty of moisture in the surrounding environment. Due to these conditions, the NHC forecast explicitly shows rapid intensification during the next couple of days, with a peak intensity likely occuring sometime between 48 and 60 hours. The peak intensity shown in the official forecast has been nudged upward slightly from the previous prediction, following the trends in the intensity guidance, however it's noteworthy that even this forecast is 5-10 kt lower than the solutions provided by the HCCA consensus aid and the COAMPS-TC model. In about 3 days, cooler waters and then increasing shear (especially on days 4 and 5) should induce a gradual weakening trend. Marie is moving westward (275/14 kt) to the south of a strong mid-tropospheric high centered near the U.S./Mexico border. This ridge is expected to maintain Marie on a westward or west-northwestward trajectory for the next 2-3 days. Even though a mid- to upper-level low near 130W longitude has caused a break in the ridge, the models have trended toward this feature weakening during the next few days. This has in turn caused many of the models to trend westward with Marie's track after day 3, as was noted in the previous advisory, but there is also greater spread than there was yesterday. The NHC track forecast remains closest to the TVCE and HCCA consensus aids, near the middle of the guidance envelope, which is bracketed on the right side by the GFS (and its ensemble mean) and the left side by the ECMWF (and its ensemble mean) by the end of the forecast period. The 12-ft sea radii remain larger than would be expected for a tropical storm of Marie's size due to a large fetch of southerly swell originating from the Southern Hemisphere. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 14.2N 113.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 14.3N 116.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 14.5N 118.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 15.1N 121.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 15.9N 123.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 03/0000Z 16.9N 125.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 18.0N 127.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 04/1200Z 19.8N 130.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 05/1200Z 21.1N 133.4W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Marie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2020-09-30 16:43:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 30 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 301443 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 1500 UTC WED SEP 30 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 115W 34 49 1(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) 15N 115W 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 120W 34 1 50(51) 44(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) 15N 120W 50 X 7( 7) 66(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) 15N 120W 64 X 2( 2) 47(49) 1(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 49(53) 17(70) 1(71) X(71) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 18(18) 17(35) X(35) X(35) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 13(19) X(19) X(19) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 3(21) X(21) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 7(16) X(16) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 44(59) 6(65) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 25(28) 4(32) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 2(16) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 16(23) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Summary for Tropical Storm Marie (EP3/EP182020)
2020-09-30 16:43:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MARIE A LITTLE STRONGER... ...FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT... As of 9:00 AM MDT Wed Sep 30 the center of Marie was located near 14.2, -113.8 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Marie Public Advisory Number 6
2020-09-30 16:43:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Sep 30 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 301443 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Marie Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 900 AM MDT Wed Sep 30 2020 ...MARIE A LITTLE STRONGER... ...FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.2N 113.8W ABOUT 655 MI...1050 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marie was located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 113.8 West. Marie is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion is expected through Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast, and Marie is expected to become a hurricane this evening or tonight. Marie could then become a major hurricane by late Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Marie Forecast Advisory Number 6
2020-09-30 16:43:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 30 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 301443 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 1500 UTC WED SEP 30 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 113.8W AT 30/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 210SE 180SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 113.8W AT 30/1500Z AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 113.0W FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 14.3N 116.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 14.5N 118.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 15.1N 121.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 15.9N 123.9W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 16.9N 125.9W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.0N 127.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 19.8N 130.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 21.1N 133.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 113.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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