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Tropical Storm Marie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2020-09-30 04:32:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 30 2020 910 FOPZ13 KNHC 300232 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 0300 UTC WED SEP 30 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 115W 34 X 57(57) 2(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) 15N 115W 50 X 22(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) 15N 115W 64 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 44(45) 45(90) X(90) 1(91) X(91) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) 14(14) 47(61) 2(63) X(63) X(63) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 35(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 46(51) 1(52) X(52) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) X(18) X(18) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 9(31) 1(32) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 1(11) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 45(48) 15(63) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 9(30) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 6(16) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm Marie Forecast Advisory Number 4
2020-09-30 04:32:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 30 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 300232 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 0300 UTC WED SEP 30 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 110.4W AT 30/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 120SE 240SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 110.4W AT 30/0300Z AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 110.0W FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 14.1N 112.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 14.6N 115.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 15.0N 118.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 15.5N 121.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.5N 123.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.6N 125.9W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 19.8N 129.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 21.4N 132.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 110.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Marie Graphics
2020-09-29 22:34:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 29 Sep 2020 20:34:48 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 29 Sep 2020 20:34:49 GMT
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Tropical Storm Marie Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-09-29 22:33:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Sep 29 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 292033 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 300 PM MDT Tue Sep 29 2020 A WindSat microwave image from earlier this morning indicated that the tropical cyclone's low-level circulation was becoming better defined, with perhaps the formative stage of a cyan ring seen in the 37-GHz channel. Visible images also show the center tucked just beneath recent bursts of deep convection, and Dvorak estimates have risen to T2.0 and T2.5 from TAFB and SAB, respectively. These data, along with ambiguity analyses of recent ASCAT-B and -C scatterometer passes, indicate the depression has strengthened to Tropical Storm Marie with maximum winds of 35 kt. Marie's future track is probably the most straightforward part of the forecast. A mid-tropospheric high anchored over the southwestern United States is steering Marie westward with an initial motion of 275/10 kt. This high will remain the main driver, forcing the cyclone westward or west-northwestward for the next 3 days. By days 4 and 5, Marie is likely to reach a break in the ridge and should slow down a bit and turn toward the northwest. There are no notable outliers among the track guidance, and the small spread among the models yields higher-than-normal confidence in the track forecast. The new NHC forecast is very similar to the previous prediction, and is close to the TVCE and HCCA consensus aids. The intensity forecast is a little more challenging, but mostly because a good proportion of the guidance suggests that Marie will intensify significantly during the next few days. Relatively low deep-layer shear, warm ocean waters, and favorable upper-level divergence all favor strengthening, and several of the various SHIPS Rapid Intensification thresholds are several times higher than their climatological means. In addition, all of the dynamical models, the consensus aids, and the GFS-based SHIPS model bring Marie to hurricane strength within 24 hours. Given these signals, the NHC intensity forecast has been raised from the previous one and lies near or just below the intensity consensus in order to maintain some continuity. But given what is shown by some of the better-performing intensity models, I would not be surprised if subsequent forecasts show a faster rate of intensification or a higher peak intensity. Weakening is expected by days 4 and 5 due to cooler waters and increasing southwesterly shear. Marie's 12-ft sea radii are larger than would be expected for a small, just-developing tropical storm due to a large fetch of southerly swell originating from the Southern Hemisphere. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 13.6N 109.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 13.9N 111.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 14.6N 114.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 14.9N 117.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 01/1800Z 15.3N 120.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 02/0600Z 16.0N 122.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 02/1800Z 17.2N 124.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 03/1800Z 19.6N 128.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 04/1800Z 21.4N 131.6W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Storm Marie (EP3/EP182020)
2020-09-29 22:33:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORMS WELL SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... As of 3:00 PM MDT Tue Sep 29 the center of Marie was located near 13.6, -109.5 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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