je.st
news
Tag: tropical storm
Tropical Storm Wilfred Graphics
2020-09-19 04:47:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Sep 2020 02:47:43 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Sep 2020 02:47:43 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
tropical
tropical storm
Tropical Storm Wilfred Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-09-19 04:46:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 18 2020 241 WTNT43 KNHC 190246 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Wilfred Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL232020 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 18 2020 Conventional satellite imagery shows that Wilfred's surface circulation has lost quite a bit of definition during the last several hours, and it has been difficult to pinpoint the center. Additionally, deep convection has become less organized and the cloud tops just to the east of the estimated center position have warmed considerably. The initial intensity is generously held at 35 kt for this advisory and is in best agreement with blend of the subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates. The GFS and ECMWF global model soundings indicate 30-35 kt of northeasterly shear at about 300 mb, and it's apparently undercutting the much lighter, diffluent southeasterly flow above. Statistical-dynamical guidance, however, still show an outside chance of some strengthening Saturday, and the NHC forecast follows suit. Afterward, a combination of Teddy's massive outflow and increasing northwesterly shear produced by an mid- to upper-level trough to the north of the cyclone, should induce slow weakening on Sunday and this trend should continue through the forecast period. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 285/16 kt, and the cyclone is being steered by a low to mid-tropospheric subtropical ridge to the north. A few of the global models are hinting at a slow turn toward the north-northwest prior to dissipation as the steering pattern becomes very meridional with developing high amplitude high pressure over the eastern Atlantic, and Hurricane Teddy well to the northwest creating a large weakness over the western Atlantic. For now, the NHC forecast shows some reduction in forward speed at day 3, before dissipation, and lies close to the consensus aids, HCCA and TVCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 12.8N 36.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 13.5N 38.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 14.5N 40.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 15.8N 43.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 21/0000Z 16.7N 46.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 21/1200Z 17.3N 48.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 22/0000Z 17.9N 50.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm Wilfred Public Advisory Number 3
2020-09-19 04:45:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 18 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 190245 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Wilfred Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL232020 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 18 2020 ...POORLY ORGANIZED WILFRED STILL A STORM... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.8N 36.0W ABOUT 830 MI...1340 KM WSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Wilfred was located near latitude 12.8 North, longitude 36.0 West. Wilfred is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible Saturday before weakening likely begins by Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Tropical Storm Beta Graphics
2020-09-18 22:54:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 18 Sep 2020 20:54:30 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 18 Sep 2020 20:54:30 GMT
Tags: graphics
beta
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm Beta Forecast Discussion Number 5
2020-09-18 22:53:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 182053 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Beta Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 400 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020 Satellite imagery indicates that the circulation of Tropical Depression 22 has become better defined, and most objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates are now 35 kt. Based on this, along with 33 kt 1-mi average winds from NOAA buoy 42002, the depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Beta with an initial intensity of 35 kt. Although the system is now a tropical storm, satellite imagery shows that the convective pattern is becoming elongated due to the effects of southwesterly vertical wind shear. Visible imagery and scatterometer data showed that the center of Beta was a bit farther east than previously thought, and the initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 025/8. This motion should continue for the next 12-24 h as the storm is steered by a mid- to upper-level trough over Texas and northeastern Mexico. After that time, the trough should weaken and lift out to the northeast, with a mid-level ridge building to the north of the cyclone above an already present low-level ridge. This ridge should act as a Beta blocker, causing the storm to turn westward toward the western Gulf coast. Between 72-120 h, the mid-level ridge weakens as another mid-latitude trough moves through the central United States, and this is expected to cause the storm to slowly recurve toward the northeast. One change in the track guidance since the previous forecast is that the GFS and ECMWF are a bit faster on the westward motion and show the center near the Texas coast in about 72 h. The latter part of the new track forecast also shifts westward, but it is still to the east of the GFS/ECMWF. There is also a chance that Beta could move more northward than forecast before the trough lifts out, which adds an additional touch of uncertainty to the track forecast. So, it is critical that users not focus on the exact forecast track, especially at days 3 to 5. The global models suggest that the current shear may decrease a little after 24 h when the upper-level trough moves away from Beta. However, there is a chance of at least some dry air entrainment that would hamper strengthening. The intensity guidance for the most part continues to forecast Beta to reach a peak intensity below hurricane strength, although the latest SHIPS model forecasts a peak intensity near 65 kt. The new intensity forecast is again unchanged in making Beta a hurricane at 60 and 72 h, and it lies at the upper edge of the intensity guidance. Key Messages: 1. Beta is expected to strengthen and possibly become a hurricane, while moving slowly over the western Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. 2. There is an increasing risk of heavy rainfall and flooding along the northwest Gulf Coast Sunday through at least the middle of next week as Beta is forecast to move slowly toward and along or offshore of the coast through that time. For additional information, see products from your local National Weather Service office. 3. While it is too early to determine what areas could see direct wind and storm surge impacts from Beta, interests throughout the western Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system and future updates to the forecast. Storm Surge and Tropical Storm or Hurricane watches could be issued tonight or Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 24.3N 93.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 25.1N 92.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 25.9N 93.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 26.1N 93.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 26.3N 94.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 21/0600Z 26.5N 95.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 21/1800Z 26.8N 96.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 22/1800Z 27.5N 96.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 23/1800Z 28.5N 96.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
Tags: number
discussion
beta
storm
Sites : [689] [690] [691] [692] [693] [694] [695] [696] [697] [698] [699] [700] [701] [702] [703] [704] [705] [706] [707] [708] next »