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Tropical Storm Karina Forecast Advisory Number 8
2020-09-14 22:46:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 142046 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162020 ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 2100 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 118.8W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 180SE 180SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 200SE 200SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 118.8W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 118.5W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 19.4N 119.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 150SE 150SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 20.8N 121.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 100SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 21.9N 122.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 23.0N 124.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 23.7N 125.2W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 24.0N 125.9W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 23.5N 127.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 118.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KODAMA
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Tropical Storm Vicky Graphics
2020-09-14 22:37:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 14 Sep 2020 20:37:47 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 14 Sep 2020 21:53:29 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Vicky (AT1/AL212020)
2020-09-14 22:34:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...VICKY EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT... As of 8:00 PM CVT Mon Sep 14 the center of Vicky was located near 19.3, -29.5 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Vicky Public Advisory Number 3
2020-09-14 22:34:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM CVT Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 142034 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Vicky Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020 800 PM CVT Mon Sep 14 2020 ...VICKY EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT... SUMMARY OF 800 PM CVT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.3N 29.5W ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM CVT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vicky was located near latitude 19.3 North, longitude 29.5 West. Vicky is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A continued northwestward motion is expected through early Tuesday, followed by a gradual turn toward the west by Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated, and Vicky is forecast to become a remnant low during the next day or two. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM CVT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Vicky Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2020-09-14 22:34:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 142034 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM VICKY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212020 2100 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VICKY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 29.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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